巴菲特：合伙企业解散信 Partnership Dissolve Letter

时间：1969年5月29日

原文标题：Partnership Dissolve Letter

巴菲特合伙有限公司 Buffett Partnership Ltd.

沃伦·E·巴菲特，普通合伙人 1969 年 5 月 29 日 Warren E. Buffett, General Partner May 29 th, 1969

致我的合作伙伴：To My Partners:

大约十八个月前，我写信给您，关于改变的环境和个人因素导致我修改我们未来的绩效目标。

About eighteen months ago I wrote to you regarding changed environmental and personal factors causing me to modify our future performance objectives.

我当时讨论的投资环境（以及我在其他信件中评论的内容）随着时间的推移，普遍变得更加消极和令人沮丧。也许我只是缺乏心理灵活性。（一位评论四十岁以上证券分析师的观察者说：“他们知道太多已经不再真实的事情。”）

The investing environment I discussed at that time (and on which I have commented in various other letters) has generally become more negative and frustrating as time has passed. Maybe I am merely suffering from a lack of mental flexibility. (One observer commenting on security analysts over forty stated: “They know too many things that are no longer true.”)

然而，在我看来：（1）强调定量因素的分析师所能获得的投资机会几乎消失了，过去二十年间这些机会逐渐减少；（2）我们的一亿美元资产进一步消除了这个看似贫瘠的投资世界中的大部分机会，因为低于约三百万美元的投资承诺对我们的整体表现无法产生真正的影响，这几乎排除了市值低于约一亿美元的公司的可能性；（3）对投资表现日益增长的兴趣导致市场越来越短期导向，并且（在我看来）更加投机。

However, it seems to me that: (1) opportunities for investment that are open to the analyst who stresses quantitative factors have virtually disappeared, after rather steadily drying up over the past twenty years; (2) our $100 million of assets further eliminates a large portion of this seemingly barren investment world, since commitments of less than about $3 million can not have a real impact on our overall performance, and this virtually rules out companies with less than about $100 million of common stock at market value; and (3) a swelling interest in investment performance has created an increasingly short-term oriented and (in my opinion) more speculative market.

1967 年 10 月 9 日的信中指出，个人考虑是导致我修改目标的更重要因素。我表达了希望摆脱（自我施加的）100%专注于 BLP 的必要性。在过去的十八个月里，我完全未能通过这个测试。信中说：“我希望有限的目标能带来更有限的努力。”但事情并没有朝这个方向发展。只要我“在台上”，定期发布记录并承担管理几乎占许多合伙人净资产 100%的责任，我就永远无法在任何非 BLP 活动中投入持续的精力。如果我要参与公众活动，我就无法避免竞争。我知道我不想一辈子都被追赶投资兔子所占据。放慢的唯一方法就是停止。

The October 9 th, 1967 letter stated that personal considerations were the more important factor among those causing me to modify our objectives. I expressed a desire to be relieved of the (self-imposed) necessity of focusing 100% on BLP. I have flunked this test completely during the last eighteen months. The letter said: “I hope limited objectives will make for more limited effort.” It hasn’t worked out that way. As long as I am “on stage”, publishing a regular record and assuming responsibility for management of what amounts to virtually 100% of the net worth of many partners, I will never be able to put sustained effort into any non-BLP activity. If I am going to participate publicity, I can’t help being competitive. I know I don’t want to be totally occupied with out-pacing an investment rabbit all of my life. The only way to slow down is to stop.

因此，在年末之前，我打算向所有有限合伙人发出我退休意向的正式通知。当然，清算合伙企业涉及一些税务和法律问题，但总体而言，我关注的是制定一个实现以下目标的计划：

Therefore, before yearend, I intend to give all limited partners the required formal notice of my intention to retire. There are, of course, a number of tax and legal problems in connection with liquidating the Partnership, but overall, I am concerned with working out a plan that attains the following objectives:

最重要的一点是，我有一个关于资金管理的替代方案，可以建议给那些不想自己处理这件事的合作伙伴。当然，一些合作伙伴有他们自己信任并且觉得相当可接受的替代方案。然而，对于其他人，我不会仅仅以“祝好运”的方式把他们的钱交给他们。我打算建议一个替代的资金管理者，我将把我亲戚和其他我有终身财务责任的人的资金托付给他。这个管理者有诚信和能力，未来的表现可能与我相当或更好（尽管与他或我过去的成就相去甚远）。他将对任何合作伙伴开放，因此账户的最低规模不会给你们带来任何问题。我打算在未来与他保持一般性的联系，但频率不高，我的建议主要限于负面的类型。

1.The most important item is that I have an alternative regarding money management to suggest to the many partners who do not want to handle this themselves. Some partners, of course, have alternatives of their own in which they have confidence and find quite acceptable. To the others, however, I will not hand over their money with a “good luck”. I intend to suggest an alternative money manager to whom I will entrust funds of my relatives and others for whom I have lifetime financial responsibility. This manager has integrity and ability, and will probably perform as well or better than I would in the future (although nowhere close to what he or I have achieved in the past). He will be available to any partner, so that no minimum size for accounts will cause any of you a problem. I intend, in the future, to keep in general touch with what he is doing, but only on an infrequent basis, with any advice on my part largely limited to a negative type.

我希望所有合伙人都有选择接受现金和可能的流动性证券的选项（可能只有一个适用），我喜欢这两者的前景和价格，但合伙人可以自由地将其转换为现金，如果他们愿意的话。

2.I want all partners to have the option of receiving cash and possibly readily marketable securities (there will probably be only one where this will apply) where I like both the prospects and price but which partners will able to freely convert to cash if they wish.

然而，我也希望所有合作伙伴都有选择权，保持他们在我们两家控股公司（多元化零售公司和伯克希尔哈撒韦公司）以及另一家小型“受限”控股公司的比例权益。因为这些证券将由我单方面以公允价值进行评估，我认为如果你愿意，你可以在这种评估下保持你的比例权益是至关重要的。

3.However, I also want all partners to have the option of maintaining their proportional interests in our two controlled companies (Diversified Retailing Company Inc. and Berkshire Hathaway Inc.) and one other small “restricted” holding. Because these securities will be valued unilaterally by me at fair value, I feel it is essential that, if you wish, you can maintain your proportionate interest at such valuation.

然而，这些证券并不是可以自由交易的（各种证券交易委员会的限制适用于“控制”股票和未注册股票），而且它们在相当长的一段时间内可能既不可转让也不产生收入。因此，我希望在我们的清算中你能够选择两种方式——要么是带有限制证券的股票，要么是现金等值。我非常喜欢所有经营我们控制业务的人（现在加入的是伊利诺伊州罗克福德的伊利诺伊国家银行和信托公司，这是一家超过 1 亿美元、管理极为出色的银行，今年早些时候被伯克希尔·哈撒韦收购），并希望这种关系能够持续终生。我当然没有任何想要出售我喜欢和钦佩的人经营的良好控制业务，仅仅是为了获得一个高价的愿望。然而，特定情况可能会导致在某个时刻出售一个运营单位。

However, these securities are not freely marketable (various SEC restrictions apply to “control” stock and non-registered stock) and they will probably be both non-transferable and non-income-producing for a considerable period of time. Therefore, I want you to be able to go either way in our liquidation – either stock with the restricted securities or take cash equivalent. I strongly like all of the people running our controlled business (joined now by the Illinois National Bank and Trust Company of Rockford, Illinois, a $100 million plus, extremely well-run bank, purchased by Berkshire Hathaway earlier this year), and want the relationship to be life-long. I certainly have no desire at all to sell a good controlled business run by people I like and admire, merely to obtain a fancy price. However, specific condition may cause the sale of one operating unit at some point.

我相信我们将有一个清算计划来实现上述目标。我们在这方面的活动不应对您 1969 年的税务规划造成任何变化。

I believe that we will have a liquidation program which will accomplish the above objectives. Our activities in this regard should cause no change in your tax planning for 1969.

我非常希望实现的一个最终目标（但这显然不会发生）是以辉煌的方式结束。我讨厌以糟糕的一年收尾，但我们在 1969 年将会有这样的一年。我最好的猜测是，到年底，考虑到受控公司的价值大幅增加（除了我以外的所有合伙人都有选择现金的权利），我们将在 1969 年显示出收支平衡的结果，而不考虑对合伙人的任何月度支付。即使在现在和年底之间市场大幅上涨，这一点也将成立，因为我们不会处于任何重要的位置，这将使我们面临很大的上行潜力。

One final objective I would like very much to achieve (but which just isn’t going to happen) is to go out with a bang. I hate to end with a poor year, but we are going to have one in 1969. My best guess is that at yearend, allowing for a substantial increase in value of controlled companies (against which all partners except me will have the option of taking cash), we will show a break even result for 1969 before any monthly payments to partners. This will be true even if the market should advance substantially between now and yearend, since we will not be in any important position which will expose us to much upside potential.

我们今年在锻炼方面的经历非常糟糕——在这段时间里，我感觉就像是一只不小心飞进羽毛球比赛中的鸟。我们并不是唯一有这种经历的人，但这发生在我们在这个类别中历史承诺百分比的上限时。

Our experience in workouts this year has been atrocious – during this period I have felt like the bird that inadvertently flew into the middle of a badminton game. We are not alone in such experience, but it came at a time when we were toward the upper limit of what has been our historical range of percentage commitment in this category.

记录自己的失误是一件令人不快的事情。我发现自己“选择性报告”更加令人厌恶。今年我们糟糕的经历完全是我的错。这并不是运气不好，而是对一个快速发展的政府趋势的错误评估。矛盾的是，我一直认为政府应该做的（就解决的问题而言——不一定是所采用的手段）正是它最终所做的——换句话说，从整体上看，我认为这项活动的总体目标是社会上可取的，并且我已经宣传了一段时间。然而，我并不认为这会发生。我从不相信在做决策时将我认为应该发生的（社会上）与我认为会发生的混为一谈——在这种情况下，如果我这样做的话，我们会好几百万。

Documenting one’s boners is unpleasant business. I find “selective reporting” even more distasteful. Our poor experience this year is 100% my fault. It did not reflect bad luck, but rather an improper assessment of a very fast-developing governmental trend. Paradoxically, I have long believed the government should have been doing (in terms of the problem attacked – not necessarily the means utilized) what it finally did – in other words, on an overall basis, I believe the general goal of the activity which has cost us substantial money is socially desirable and have so preached for some time. Nevertheless, I didn’t think it would happen. I never believe in mixing what I think should happen (socially) with what I think will happen in making decisions – in this case, we would be some millions better off if I had.

坦率地说，尽管前面提到了一些因素，如果我有一些真正一流的想法，我会继续在 1970 年甚至 1971 年运营合伙企业。并不是因为我想这样做，而是因为我更希望以一个好年头结束，而不是一个糟糕的年头。然而，我并没有看到任何合理的机会可以“碰运气”用别人的钱。我对这个市场环境并不适应，我不想通过尝试我不理解的游戏来破坏一个不错的记录，只是为了让我能以英雄的身份出场。

Quite frankly, in spite of any factors set forth on the earlier pages, I would continue to operate the Partnership in 1970, or even 1971, if I had some really first class ideas. Not because I want to, but simply because I would so much rather end with a good year than a poor one. However, I just don’t see anything available that gives any reasonable hoping to “get lucky” with other people’s money. I am not attuned to this market environment, and I don’t want to spoil a decent record by trying to play a game I don’t understand just so I can go out a hero.

因此，我们将在全年内清算持有的资产，努力实现对控股公司的剩余、唯一的“投资信函”证券、唯一的具有良好长期前景的可交易证券，以及各种小总值的“残余”等，这些将在“清理”类别中需要数年时间才能处理完毕。

Therefore, we will be liquidating holdings throughout the year, working toward a residual of the controlled companies, the one “investment letter” security, the one marketable security with favorable long-term prospects, and the miscellaneous “stubs”, etc. of small total value which will take several years to clean up in the Workout category.

我写这封信有点早，以代替年中的信。一旦我做出决定，我想让你知道。我也希望在你收到这封信后能在奥马哈待一段时间，以澄清信中可能让人困惑的内容。七月份，我预计会在加利福尼亚。你们中的一些人会问：“你打算做什么？”我没有这个问题的答案。我知道，当我 60 岁时，我应该努力实现与 20 岁时优先考虑的不同个人目标。因此，除非我与在我成年生活的前十八年几乎消耗了我所有时间和精力的活动脱离，否则我不太可能发展出适合未来几年新情况的活动。

I have written this letter a little early in lieu of the mid-year letter. Once I made a decision, I wanted you to know. I also wanted to be available in Omaha for a period after you received this letter to clear up anything that may be confusing in it. In July, I expect to be in California. Some of you are going to ask, “What do you plan to do?” I don’t have the answer to that question. I do know that when I am 60, I should be attempting to achieve different personal goals than those which had priority at age 20. Therefore, unless I divorce myself from the activity that has consumed virtually all of my time and energies during the first eighteen years of my adult life, I am unlikely to develop activities that will be appropriate to new circumstances in subsequent years.

我们将在秋季，可能是十月，发出一封信，详细说明清算程序、投资顾问建议等。

We will have a letter out in the Fall, probably October, elaborating on the liquidation procedure, the investment advisor suggestion, etc.