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记录巴菲特的投资逻辑


1 April 2012

沃伦巴菲特 500 亿美元的决定 Warren Buffett's $50 Billion Decision

时间:2012年4月1日

来源:[Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/randalllane/2012/03/26/warren-buffetts-50-billion-decision/)

原文标题:Warren Buffett's $50 Billion Decision

编者注:这篇文章是沃伦·巴菲特向兰德尔·莱恩讲述的,发表在即将出版的《福布斯生活》杂志四月刊的“我25岁时”系列中。This article, by Warren Buffett, as told to Randall Lane, appears in the upcoming April issue of ForbesLife magazine, as part of its “When I Was 25” series.

作者:沃伦·巴菲特 By Warren Buffett

自从我读了他的书《聪明的投资者》后,本杰明·格雷厄姆就一直是我的偶像。我之所以想去哥伦比亚商学院,是因为他是那里的教授,而在我从哥伦比亚毕业后,回到奥马哈,开始卖证券时,我也没有忘记他。在1951年到1954年之间,我一直是个讨厌鬼,给他频繁地寄送证券建议。后来我收到了一封回信:“下次你来纽约的时候,来见我。”

Benjamin Graham had been my idol ever since I read his book The Intelligent Investor. I had wanted to go to Columbia Business School because he was a professor there, and after I got out of Columbia, returned to Omaha, and started selling securities, I didn’t forget about him. Between 1951 and 1954, I made a pest of myself, sending him frequent securities ideas. Then I got a letter back: “Next time you’re in New York, come and see me.”


于是我就去了,他给我在格雷厄姆-纽曼公司(Graham-Newman Corp.)提供了一份工作,这是他和杰里·纽曼(Jerry Newman)经营的公司。大家都说A.W.琼斯(A.W. Jones)开创了对冲基金行业,但实际上格雷厄姆-纽曼的姐妹合伙公司纽曼和格雷厄姆(Newman and Graham)是更早的一家基金。我和怀孕四个月的妻子苏西(Susie),还有我的女儿搬到了纽约的怀特普莱恩斯(White Plains)。每天早上,我乘火车到大中央车站(Grand Central),然后去上班。

So there I went, and he offered me a job at Graham-Newman Corp., which he ran with Jerry Newman. Everyone says that A.W. Jones started the hedge fund industry, but Graham-Newman’s sister partnership, Newman and Graham, was actually an earlier fund. I moved to White Plains, New York, with my wife, Susie, who was four months pregnant, and my daughter. Every morning, I got on a train to Grand Central and went to work.


这是一个短暂的职位:第二年,当我25岁的时候,格雷厄姆先生——那时我叫他这个名字——告诉我他要退休了。事实上,他不仅仅是告诉我:他给了我一个机会来取代他,让杰里的儿子米奇成为新的高级合伙人,而我成为新的初级合伙人。这是一个非常小的基金——600万或700万美元——但它是一个著名的基金。

It was a short-lived position: The next year, when I was 25, Mr. Graham—that’s what I called him then—gave me a heads-up that he was going to retire. Actually, he did more than that: He offered me the chance to replace him, with Jerry’s son Mickey as the new senior partner and me as the new junior partner. It was a very tiny fund—$6 million or $7 million—but it was a famous fund.


这是一个痛苦的决定。这是我进入我的英雄的鞋子的机会——我甚至给我的第一个儿子取名为霍华德·格雷厄姆·巴菲特。(霍华德是我父亲的名字。)但我也想回到奥马哈。我可能每天早上都在想着告诉格雷厄姆先生我要离开。但这很难做到。

This was a traumatic decision. Here was my chance to step into the shoes of my hero—I even named my first son Howard Graham Buffett. (Howard was for my father.) But I also wanted to come back to Omaha. I probably went to work for a month thinking every morning that I would tell Mr. Graham I was going to leave. But it was hard to do.


事情是这样的,当我从大学毕业时,我有9800美元,但到了1955年底,我就有了127000美元。我想,我会回到奥马哈,上一些大学课程,多读一些书——我打算退休!我估计我们一年可以生活在12000美元上,而且凭借我的127000美元的资产基础,我可以轻松地做到这一点。我告诉我的妻子,“复利保证了我会变得富有。”

The thing is, when I got out of college, I had $9,800, but by the end of 1955, I was up to $127,000. I thought, I’ll go back to Omaha, take some college classes, and read a lot—I was going to retire! I figured we could live on $12,000 a year, and off my $127,000 asset base, I could easily make that. I told my wife, “Compound interest guarantees I’m going to get rich.”


我的妻子和孩子们在我之前回到了奥马哈。我上了车,一路向西,查看了我感兴趣的投资公司。这是尽职调查。我在宾夕法尼亚州的哈兹尔顿停下来,拜访了杰多-高地煤炭公司。我参观了密歇根州的卡拉马祖炉灶和熔炉公司,它正在清算。我去看看他们的建筑长什么样,他们有什么要卖的。我去了俄亥俄州的特拉华,查看了格雷夫兄弟木桶公司。(现在谁还知道什么是木桶制造?)它的董事长会见了我。我没有预约;我只是顺便拜访。我发现人们总是愿意跟我交谈。所有这些人都帮助了我。

My wife and kids went back to Omaha just ahead of me. I got in the car, and on my way west checked out companies I was interested in investing in. It was due diligence. I stopped in Hazleton, Pennsylvania, to visit the Jeddo-Highland Coal Company. I visited the Kalamazoo Stove & Furnace Company in Michigan, which was being liquidated. I went to see what the building looked like, what they had for sale. I went to Delaware, Ohio, to check out Greif Bros. Cooperage. (Who knows anything about cooperage anymore?) Its chairman met with me. I didn’t have appointments; I would just drop in. I found that people always talked to me. All these people helped me.


在奥马哈,我租了一栋房子,地址是5202 Underwood,每月175美元。我告诉我的妻子,“我很乐意买一栋房子,但那就像一个木匠卖掉他的工具箱。”我不想用掉我的资本。

In Omaha, I rented a house at 5202 Underwood for $175 a month. I told my wife, “I’d be glad to buy a house, but that’s like a carpenter selling his toolkit.” I didn’t want to use up my capital.


我没有计划开始一个合伙企业,甚至没有工作。只要我能自己操作,我就没有什么担心。我当然不想再向别人卖证券了。但是纯粹是偶然的,有七个人,包括我的一些亲戚,对我说,“你以前卖过股票,我们想让你告诉我们该怎么处理我们的钱。”我回答说,“我不会再那样做了,但是我会像本和杰瑞那样组建一个合伙企业,如果你想加入我,你可以。”我的岳父,我的大学室友,他的母亲,我的姑姑爱丽丝,我的妹妹,我的姐夫,还有我的律师都签了字。我还有一百美元。这就是开始——完全是意外的。

I had no plans to start a partnership, or even have a job. I had no worries as long as I could operate on my own. I certainly did not want to sell securities to other people again. But by pure accident, seven people, including a few of my relatives, said to me, “You used to sell stocks, and we want you to tell us what to do with our money.” I replied, “I’m not going to do that again, but I’ll form a partnership like Ben and Jerry had, and if you want to join me, you can.” My father-in-law, my college roommate, his mother, my aunt Alice, my sister, my brother-in-law, and my lawyer all signed on. I also had my hundred dollars. That was the beginning—totally accidental.


当我组建那个合伙人关系时,我们七个人加上我——我有99%的把握是在奥马哈俱乐部吃的晚饭。我花了49美分买了一本账本,他们带来了他们的支票。在我拿他们的钱之前,我给了他们一张半张纸,我用碳纸复印了——我称之为基本规则。我说,“有两到四页的合伙人法律文件。不用担心那个。我会告诉你里面有什么,你不会有任何惊喜。

When I formed that partnership, we had dinner, the seven of them plus me—I’m 99 percent sure it was at the Omaha Club. I bought a ledger for 49 cents, and they brought their checks. Before I took their money, I gave them a half sheet of paper that I had made carbons of—something I called the ground rules. I said, “There are two or four pages of partnership legal documents. Don’t worry about that. I’ll tell you what’s in it, and you won’t get any surprises.


“但这些基本原则是我的理念。如果你和我心有灵犀,那就跟我走。如果你不是,我也理解。我不会告诉你我们拥有什么或者类似的东西。我想在我应该得到鲜花的时候得到鲜花,我想在我应该被扔软水果的时候被扔软水果。但是如果我下跌了5%,而市场下跌了15%,我不想被扔水果——我会认为我应该得到一束鲜花。”我们把一切都说清楚了,他们就给了我支票。

“But these ground rules are the philosophy. If you are in tune with me, then let’s go. If you aren’t, I understand. I’m not going to tell you what we own or anything like that. I want to get bouquets when I deserve bouquets, and I want to get soft fruit thrown at me when I deserve it. But I don’t want fruit thrown at me if I’m down 5 percent, and the market’s down 15 percent—I’m going to think I deserve a bouquet for that.” We made everything clear, and they gave me their checks.


我没有做任何推销,但是更多的支票开始从我不认识的人那里寄来。在纽约,格雷厄姆-纽曼公司正在清算。在佛蒙特州有一位大学校长,霍默·道奇,他曾经和格雷厄姆投资过,他问,“本,我应该怎么处理我的钱?”本说,“嗯,有个曾经给我工作过的小伙子……”于是道奇开车来到奥马哈,到了我租住的房子。我当时25岁,看起来像17岁,表现得像12岁。他说,“你在做什么?”我说,“这是我和我的家人在做的事情,我也会和你一样做。”

I did no solicitation, but more checks began coming from people I didn’t know. Back in New York, Graham-Newman was being liquidated. There was a college president up in Vermont, Homer Dodge, who had been invested with Graham, and he asked, “Ben, what should I do with my money?” Ben said, “Well, there’s this kid who used to work for me.…” So Dodge drove out to Omaha, to this rented house I lived in. I was 25, looked about 17, and acted like 12. He said, “What are you doing?” I said, “Here’s what I’m doing with my family, and I’ll do it with you.”


虽然我不知道,但25岁是一个转折点。我正在改变我的生活,建立了一个后来会变成相当大的合伙企业,叫做伯克希尔·哈撒韦。我并不害怕。我在做我喜欢的事情,而且我现在还在做。

Although I had no idea, age 25 was a turning point. I was changing my life, setting up something that would turn into a fairly good-size partnership called Berkshire Hathaway. I wasn’t scared. I was doing something I liked, and I’m still doing it.

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