巴菲特：我最喜欢的股票 The Security I Like Best

译者注：我没记错的话，这是巴菲特写的第一篇文章

时间：1951年12月6日

来源：The Commercial and Financial Chronicle

原文标题：The Security I Like Best

编者注：这是一篇连续的论坛，每周都有来自全国各地的投资和咨询领域的不同专家参与，并给出他们为什么支持某种特定证券的理由，它出现在《Chronicle》杂志上。

This is part of a continuous forum appearing in the “Chronicle,” in which each week, a different group of experts in the investment and advisory field from all sections of the country participate and give their reasons for favoring a particular security.

沃伦·巴菲特 WARREN E. BUFFETT
巴菲特-福克公司，奥马哈，内布拉斯加州 Buffett-Falk & Co., Omaha, Nebr.

全面就业、繁荣时期的利润和创纪录的股息支付并不意味着股票价格低迷。过去五年，大多数行业都在这股繁荣浪潮中波澜不惊地前进。

Full employment, boomtime profits and record dividend payments do not set the stage for depressed security prices. Most industries have been riding this wave of prosperity during the past five years with few ripples to disturb the tide.

汽车保险业并没有分享这种繁荣。在战后立即出现的惨重损失之后，情况在1949年开始好转。1950年，股份制财产保险公司再次遭受重创，承保经验是15年来第二差的。财产保险公司，特别是那些以汽车险为主的公司，最近的盈利报告已经使牛市对它们的股票失去了热情。从正常的盈利能力和资产因素来看，这些股票中的许多似乎被低估了。这个行业的性质使其能够缓解周期性的波动。

The auto insurance business has not shared in the boom. After the staggering losses of the immediate postwar period, the situation began to right itself in 1949. In 1950, stock casualty companies again took it on the chin with underwriting experience the second worst in 15 years. The recent earnings reports of casualty companies, particularly those with the bulk of writings in auto lines, have diverted bull market enthusiasm from their stocks. On the basis of normal earning power and asset factors, many of these stocks appear undervalued. The nature of the industry is such as to ease cyclical bumps.

汽车保险被大多数购买者视为一种必需品。合同必须每年按照经验重新定价。在1945-1951年这样一个物价上涨的时期，费率落后于成本虽然有不利的影响，但如果通缩力量开始发挥作用，应该会有利。

Auto insurance is regarded as a necessity by the majority of purchasers. Contracts must be renewed yearly at rates based upon experience. The lag of rates behind costs, although detrimental in a period of rising prices as has characterized the 1945-1951 period, should prove beneficial if deflationary forces should be set in action.

其他行业的优势包括没有库存、收款、劳动力和原材料问题。产品过时和相关设备过时的风险也不存在。

Other industry advantages include lack of inventory, collection, labor and raw material problems. The hazard of product obsolescence and related equipment obsolescence is also absent.

政府雇员保险公司（Government Employees Insurance Corporation）是在20世纪30年代中期成立的，为符合条件的类别提供全国范围内的完整汽车保险，包括：（1）联邦、州和市政府雇员；（2）现役和预备役军官和军队中前三级别的士官；（3）在现役期间符合条件的退伍军人；（4）前保单持有人；（5）大学、学院和学校的教职员；（6）从事国防工作的政府承包商雇员，以及（7）股东。

Government Employees Insurance Corporation was organized in the mid-30’s to provide complete auto insurance on a nation wide basis to an eligible class including: (1) Federal, State and municipal government employees; (2) active and reserve commissioned officers and the first three pay grades of non-commissioned officers of the Armed Forces; (3) veterans who were eligible when on active duty; (4) former policyholders; (5) faculty members of universities, colleges and schools; (6) government contractor employees engaged in defense work exclusively, and (7) stockholders.

这家公司没有代理商或分支机构。因此，保单持有人可以以高达30%的折扣获得标准的汽车保险。公司通过全国约500名代表迅速处理索赔。

The company has no agents or branch offices. As a result, policyholders receive standard auto insurance policies at premium discounts running as high as 30% off manual rates. Claims are handled promptly through approximately 500 representatives throughout the country.

在过去的几年里，有些公司被滥用地称为“增长型公司”，而它们的销售增长只不过是价格的通货膨胀和商业竞争的普遍放松。GEICO是一家合格的增长型公司，其记录如下：

Year	Premiums Written	Policyholders
1936	103,696.31	3,754
1940	768,057.86	25,514
1945	1,638,562.09	51,697
1950	8,016,975.79	143,944

The term “growth company” has been applied with abandon during the past few years to companies whose sales increases represented little more than inflation of prices and general easing of business competition. GEICO qualifies as a legitimate growth company based upon the following record:

当然，今天的投资者并不能从昨天的增长中获利。在GEICO的案例中，有理由相信增长的主要部分还在未来。在1950年之前，该公司只在50个司法管辖区中的15个（包括华盛顿特区和夏威夷）获得了许可。在今年年初，纽约州还不到3,000名保单持有人。然而，在纽约省下125美元的保险费用的25%应该比在人口稀少地区省下50美元费用的25%对潜在客户更有吸引力。

Of course the investor of today does not profit from yesterday’s growth. In GEICO’s case, there is reason to believe the major portion of growth lies ahead. Prior to 1950, the company was only licensed in 15 of 50 jurisdictions including D. C. and Hawaii. At the beginning of the year there were less than 3,000 policyholders In New York State. Yet 25% saved on an insurance bill of $125 in New York should look bigger to the prospect than the 25% saved on the $50 rate in more sparsely settled regions.

在经济衰退时期，成本竞争的重要性增加，GEICO的费率优势应该更能有效地从亲戚手中抢走业务。由于通货膨胀，保险费率上升，费率之间的25%差距在美元和分的意义上变得更大。

As cost competition increases in importance during times of recession, GEICO’s rate attraction should become even more effective in diverting business from the brother-in-law. With insurance rates moving higher due to inflation, the 25% spread in rates becomes wider in terms of dollars and cents.

我们的代理人不会有压力去接受有问题的申请人或续签风险较高的客户。在费率结构不合理的州，新的推广可能会停止。

There is no pressure from agents to accept questionable applicants or renew poor risks. In States where the rate structure is inadequate, new promotion may be halted.

GEICO最大的吸引力可能是它享有的利润率优势。1949年，GEICO的承保利润与已赚保费的比率为27.5%，而贝斯特(Best’s)总结的135家股份制财产和担保公司的比率为6.7%。随着1950年经验的恶化，贝斯特(Best’s)集团的利润率下降到3.0%，而GEICO的利润率下降到18.0%。GEICO并不经营所有的财产险业务；然而，人身伤害和财产损失，这两个对GEICO来说很重要的业务线，也是利润最低的业务线之一。

Probably the biggest attraction of GEICO is the profit margin advantage it enjoys. The ratio of underwriting profit to premiums earned in 1949 was 27.5% for GEICO as compared to 6.7% for the 135 stock casualty and surety companies summarized by Best’s. As experience turned for the worse in 1950, Best’s aggregate’s profit margin dropped to 3.0% and GEICO’s dropped to 18.0%. GEICO does not write all casualty lines; however, bodily Injury and property damage, both important lines for GEICO, were among the least profitable lines.

GEICO还从事大量的碰撞险业务，这是1950年的一项有利可图的业务。在1951年上半年，几乎所有的保险公司在人身伤害和财产损失等最不赚钱的责任险方面都是亏损的。

GEICO also does a large amount of collision writing, which was a profitable line In 1950. During the first half of 1951, practically all insurers operated in the red on casualty lines with bodily injury and property damage among the most unprofitable.

GEICO的利润率被削减到略高于9%，而马萨诸塞州保险公司却亏损了16%，新阿姆斯特丹保险公司亏损了8%，标准事故保险公司亏损了9%，等等。

Whereas GEICO’s profit margin was cut to slightly above 9%, Massachusett’s Bonding & Insurance showed a 16% loss, New Amsterdam Casualty an 8% loss, Standard Accident Insurance a 9% loss, etc.

由于GEICO的快速增长，现金股利不得不保持低水平。股票股利和25比1的拆分使得在1948年6月1日至1951年11月10日期间，流通股数从3,000股增加到250,000股。还发行了有价值的权利，订阅附属公司的股票。

Because of the rapid growth of GEICO, cash dividends have had to remain low. Stock dividends and a 25-for-1 split increased the outstanding shares from 3,000 on June 1, 1948, to 250,000 on Nov. 10, 1951. Valuable rights to sub scribe to stock of affiliated companies have also been Issued.

本杰明·格雷厄姆自从他的投资信托在1948年收购并分发了一大块股票后，就一直担任董事会主席。自从创立以来，就一直指导GEICO的增长的能干总裁是李奥·古德温。

Benjamin Graham has been Chairman of the Board since his investment trust acquired and distributed a large block of the stock in 1948. Leo Goodwin, who has guided GEICO’s growth since inception, is the able President.

1950年底，董事会的10名成员拥有大约三分之一的股份。

At the end of 1950. the 10 members of the Board of Directors owned approximately one – third of the outstanding stock.

1950年的收益为3.92美元，与1949年较少的业务收入的4.71美元形成了对比。这些数字没有考虑到未赚取保费准备金的增加，这在两年中都很可观。

Earnings in 1950 amounted to $3.92 as contrasted to $4.71 on the smaller amount of business in 1949. These figures include no allowance for the increase in the unearned premium reserve which was substantial in both years.

1951年的收益将低于1950年，但去年夏天的一波利率上涨应该会在1952年的收益中体现出来。投资收入在1947年到1950年间增加了四倍，反映了公司资产的增长。

Earnings in 1951 will be lower than 1950, but the wave of rate increases during the past summer should evidence themselves in 1952 earnings. Investment income quadrupled between 1947 and 1950, reflecting the growth of the company’s assets.

按照目前大约是1950年行业糟糕年份收益的八倍的价格来看，似乎没有人为这家公司巨大的增长潜力付出任何代价。

At the present price of about eight times the earnings of 1950, a poor year for the industry, it appears that no price is being paid for the tremendous growth potential of the company.