巴菲特：我最喜欢的股票 The Security I Like Best 2

时间：1953年3月

来源：The Commercial and Financial Chronicle

原文标题：The Security I Like Best

编者注：一个持续的论坛，每周都有来自全国各地的投资和咨询领域的不同专家参与，他们给出了他们支持某种证券的理由。（本论坛中包含的文章不构成也不应被视为出售所讨论的证券的要约。）

A continuous forum in which, each week, a different group of experts in the investment and advisory field from all sections of the country participate and give their reasons for favoring a particular security (The articles contained in this forum are not intended to be, nor are they to be regarded, as an offer to sell the securities discussed.)

沃伦·巴菲特 WARREN E. BUFFETT
巴菲特-福克公司，奥马哈，内布拉斯加州 Buffett-Falk & Co., Omaha, Nebr.

我最喜欢的证券是一家年轻、快速增长且管理能力强的保险公司的股票。虽然政府雇员保险公司，我15个月前的选择，其股价已经上涨了100%以上，但它仍然是一个非常有吸引力的长期资本增长的载体。

Again my favorite security is the equity stock of a young, rapidly growing and ably managed insurance company. Although Government Employees Insurance Co., my selection of 15 months ago, has had a price rise of more than 100%, it still appears very attractive as a vehicle for long-term capital growth.

很少有投资者能够以西方保险证券公司（Western Insurance Securities Company）目前极低的估值参与到两家优秀的、不断扩张的保险公司的增长中。这两家运营子公司，西方责任与担保（Western Casualty & Surety）和西方火灾（Western Fire），在1952年以2,959万美元的净资产规模，实现了2,600万美元的保费收入。目前在38个州获得了许可，它们令人印象深刻的增长记录，无论是绝对值还是相对于行业，都在下面的表格I中总结出来。

Rarely is an investor offered the opportunity to participate in the growth of two excellently managed and expanding insurance companies on the grossly undervalued basis which appears possible in the case of the Western Insurance Securities Company. The two operating subsidiaries, Western Casualty & Surety and Western Fire, wrote a premium volume of $26,009,929 in 1952 on consolidated admitted assets of S29,590,142. Now licensed in 38 states, their impressive growth record, both absolutely and relative to the industry, is summarized in Table I below.

西方保险证券公司拥有西方伤害和保证公司的92%，而西方伤害和保证公司又拥有西方火灾保险公司的99.95%。西方保险证券公司的其他资产微不足道，大约有18万美元的净流动资产。其资本结构包括7000股100美元面值6%的优先股，可赎回价为125美元；35000股A类优先股，可赎回价为60美元，每股享有2.50美元的定期股息，并进一步参与到每股最高4美元的股息中；以及50000股普通股。A类优先股目前的欠发金额为36.75美元。

Western Insurance Securities owns 92% of Western Casualty and Surety, which in turn owns 99.95% of Western Fire Insurance. Other assets of Western Insurance Securities are minor, consisting of approximately $180,000 in net quick assets. The capitalization consists of 7,000 shares of $100 par 6% preferred, callable at $125; 35,000 shares of Class A preferred, callable at $60, which is entitled to a $2.50 regular dividend and participates further up to a maximum total of $4 per share; and 50,000 shares of common stock. The arrears on the Class A presently amount to $36.75.

由雷·杜博克领导的管理层是最高级别的。杜博克先生自1924年公司成立以来一直出色地引领着公司，并在保险行业享有杰出的诚信和能力的声誉。第二层次的高管也是顶尖水平的。在公司形成期，高级管理费用与企业的盈利能力不相称。读者可以清楚地看出，当保费收入在300万美元左右时，同样的高级管理费用会造成多大的困难，而当保费收入超过2600万美元时，这些费用就不会造成多大的麻烦了。

The management headed by Ray DuBoc is of the highest grade. Mr. DuBoc has ably steered the company since its inception in 1924 and has a reputation in the insurance industry of being a man of outstanding integrity and ability. The second tier of executives is also of top caliber. During the formative years of the company, senior charges were out of line with the earning power of the enterprise. The reader can clearly perceive why the same senior charges that caused such great difficulty when premium volume ranged about the $3,000,000 mark would cause little trouble upon the attainment of premium volume in excess of $26,000,000.

1952年，这家公司赚了1367063美元，这是汽车保险业非常低迷的一年。这足以覆盖总高级费用129500美元的十倍以上。普通股每股收益为24.74美元。这是在仅调整了未赚保费准备金增加的25%之后的数字。

The company earned $1,367,063 in 1952, a very depressed year for auto insurers. This was enough to cover the total senior charges of $129,500 more than 10 times over. The earnings per share of common stock were $24.74. This was after adjusting for only 25% of the increase in the unearned premium reserve.

很明显，普通股已经成为了主流，尽管投资者似乎没有意识到这一点，因为这只股票的市盈率不到2倍，而且比1952年12月31日的每股账面价值86.26美元低了大约55%。表二显示了战后的盈利记录，并生动地说明了普通股因为扩大的盈利基础而获得的好处。账面价值是在允许对未赚保费准备金25%的权益，并在允许优先股赎回价加上拖欠利息后计算的。

It is quite evident that the common stock has finally arrived, although investors do not appear to realize it since the stock is quoted at less than twice earnings and at a discount of approximately 55% from the December 31, 1952 book value of $86.26 per share. Table II indicates the postwar record of earnings and dramatically illustrates the benefits being realized by the common stock because of the expanded earnings base. The book value is calculated with allowance for a 25% equity in the unearned premium reserve and is after allowance for call price plus arrears on the preferreds.

西方公司在提高其保费市场份额方面取得了优异的业绩，而没有降低其标准。事实上，在过去的十年里，西方公司的运营比率远远优于平均多元化公司。表三将两家西方公司的综合损失和费用比率与所有股份制火灾和意外保险公司的类似比率进行了比较，这些比率是按照阿尔弗雷德·M·贝斯特公司的案例基础报告的。

Western has achieved an excellent record in increasing its industry share of premium volume, without compromising its standards. In fact, during the past ten years, Western’s operating ratios have been quite superior to the average multiple line company. Table III compares the combined loss and expense ratios for the two Western companies as reported by the Alfred M. Best Co. on a case basis with similar ratios for all stock fire and casualty companies.

仔细的读者不会忽略这样一种可能性，即西方公司的优异表现是由于它在特别有利的领域集中投资。实际上情况恰恰相反。虽然涉及所有主要领域，但西方公司仍然主要是一家汽车保险公司，其60%的业务量来自汽车领域。由于汽车承保在战后时期总体上是不满意的，特别是在过去三年里，西方公司的经验相对于行业而言更为有利，而不仅仅是表格比较所能显示的那样。

The careful reader will not overlook the possibility that Western’s superior performance has been due to a concentration of writings in unusually profitable lines. Actually the reverse is true. Although represented in all major lines, Western is still primarily an automobile insurer with 60% of its volume derived from auto lines. Since automobile underwriting has proven generally unsatisfactory in the postwar period, and particularly so in the last three years, Western’s experience was even more favorable relative to the industry than the tabular comparison would indicate.

西方公司在未解决的索赔上一直保持了充足的损失准备金。战后时期的承保结果显示，西方公司在每年年底都有过剩的准备金。保险监管机构每三年进行的审查也证实了这些发现。

Western has always maintained ample loss reserves on unsettled claims. Underwriting results in the postwar period have shown Western to be overreserved at the end of each year. Triennial examinations conducted by the insurance commissioners have confirmed these findings.

他们的投资情况，我们当然会发现投资资产和投资收入与保费收入的增长相平行。西方保险公司的合并净资产从1940年的5,154,367美元增长到目前的29,590,142美元。西方保险公司遵循极其保守的投资政策，依靠保费收入的增长来扩大投资收入。截至年底的21,889,243美元的投资组合中，政府债券加上一系列多样化的高质量市政债券总计20,141,246美元，占92%，而股票只有1,747,997美元，占8%。1952年的净投资收入为474,472美元，相当于西方保险公司普通股每股6.14美元，扣除少数股东权益并假设高级费用完全由投资收入支付。

Turning to their investment picture, we of course find a growth in invested assets and investment income paralleling the growth in premium volume. Consolidated net assets have risen from $5,154,367 in 1940 to their present level of $29,590,142. Western follows an extremely conservative investment policy, relying upon growth in premium volume for expansion in investment income. Of the year-end portfolio of $21,889,243, governments plus a list of well diversified high quality municipals total $20,141,246 or 92% and stocks only $1,747,997 or 8%. Net investment income of $474,472 in 1952 was equal to $6.14 per share of Western Insurance common after minority interest and assuming senior charges were covered entirely from investment income.

在过去的几年里，财产保险行业在汽车保险业务上遭受了惨重的损失。这一趋势在1952年末得到了明显的逆转。1951年和1952年的大幅费率提高正在对承保结果产生越来越大的影响，因为保单以更高的保费续签。预计1953年和1954年，财产保险行业的盈利将达到非常满意的水平。

The casualty insurance industry has suffered staggering losses on automobile insurance lines during the past several years. This trend was sharply reversed during late 1952. Substantial rate increases in 1951 and 1952 are being brought to bear on underwriting results with increasing force as policies are renewed at much higher premiums. Earnings within the casualty industry are expected to be on a very satisfactory basis in 1953 and 1954.

西方公司在整个艰难时期都非常盈利，预计随着保费收入的增加、资产的增加和费率结构的提高，其收益将有所增加。到1954年，可以保守地预计其保费收入将达到3,000万美元。这一收入的正常盈利能力应该平均每股约30.00美元，其中投资收入在扣除所有投资收入的高级费用后约为每股8.40美元。

Western, while operating very profitably during the entire trying period, may be expected to report increased earnings as a result of expanding premium volume, increased assets, and the higher rate structure. An earned premium volume of $30,000,000 may be conservatively expected by 1954. Normal earning power on this volume should average about $30.00 per share, with investment income contributing approximately $8.40 per share after deducting all senior charges from investment income.

西方保险公司的普通股投资者可以合理地确信，他们的股权地位得到了极大的加强。值得记住的是，过去12年里，这些运营公司的保费收入增长了550%。这就要求增加350%的盈余，从而限制了股息的支付。西方伤害保险公司最近增加了股息，为更及时地支付拖欠款铺平了道路。任何保费收入的平稳将允许更宽松的股息，而过去增长率的延续，在我看来是非常不可能的，当然会带来更大的收益。

The patient investor in Western Insurance common can be reasonably assured of a tangible acknowledgment of his enormously strengthened equity position. It is well to bear in mind that the operating companies have expanded premium volume some 550% in the last 12 years. This has required an increase in surplus of 350% and consequently restricted the payment of dividends. Recent dividend increases by Western Casualty should pave the way for more prompt payment on arrearages. Any leveling off of premium volume will permit more liberal dividends while a continuation of the past rate of increase, which in my opinion is very unlikely, would of course make for much greater earnings.

Western Insurance common是目前价格约为40美元的一个很好的投资机会。该公司在一个稳定的行业中运营，有着增长和盈利的历史。该股票在场外交易，有着显著的资本增值潜力。

Western Insurance common is a great investment opportunity at its current price of around 40. The company operates in a stable industry and has a history of growth and profitability. The stock is traded over-the-counter and has the potential for significant capital appreciation.