巴菲特：我正在做多美股

时间：2008年10月16日

来源：New York Times <https://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/17/opinion/17buffett.html>

原文标题：Buy American. I Am.

奥马哈

Omaha

无论是美国境内还是海外，金融市场陷入一片混乱。更可怕的是，这次危机已经开始在动摇着整体经济，从原本的汨汨而流发展到喷薄而出。在近期的未来，就业问题将持续恶化，商业活动将持续减缓，报纸头条将持续惊骇。

THE financial world is a mess, both in the United States and abroad. Its problems, moreover, have been leaking into the general economy, and the leaks are now turning into a gusher. In the near term, unemployment will rise, business activity will falter and headlines will continue to be scary.

那么我呢，我一直在买入美股。我说的是我的个人账户，在此之前我持有的全部都是美国政府债券。（我这么说是没有包括伯克希尔哈撒韦的持股部分，这一部分是会在未来用于慈善。）如果股票的价格持续走低，我的非伯克希尔部分的投资将全部转为美国股票。

So … I’ve been buying American stocks. This is my personal account I’m talking about, in which I previously owned nothing but United States government bonds. (This description leaves aside my Berkshire Hathaway holdings, which are all committed to philanthropy.) If prices keep looking attractive, my non-Berkshire net worth will soon be 100 percent in United States equities.

为什么？

Why?

我的行为来自一个简单的理由：在别人贪婪时恐惧，在别人恐惧时贪婪。而在现在几乎可以肯定的是，恐惧遍布了整个金融市场，甚至是熟练的投资者们都无法幸免。诚然，投资者是有理由去在意那些使用了高杠杆而又身处竞争环境的公司。但是对于美国长期经济发展前景的担忧是站不住脚的。美国公司将会出现收益欠佳的情况，而这是一直都会有的事。但是他们之中的绝大部分将会在未来的5，10，20年收入创新高。

A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors. To be sure, investors are right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions. But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation’s many sound companies make no sense. These businesses will indeed suffer earnings hiccups, as they always have. But most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now.

让我在此明确一点：我无法预测短期的股市趋势。我对股市未来一个月或者一年的动向毫无头绪。但是有一点将会发生的是，股市将会，并可能相当程度上的，在悲观情绪消散或者经济情况好转之前会有良好表现。所以如果你想待到知更鸟回来之时，春季早已结束。

Let me be clear on one point: I can’t predict the short-term movements of the stock market. I haven’t the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month — or a year — from now. What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over.

为大家回顾一下历史：大萧条时期，道琼斯指数在1932年7月8日抵达新低，41点。但是经济情况在富兰克林D.罗斯福在1933年3月上任之前依然在恶化。在那时，道琼斯已经上涨了30%。或者我们可以看看第二次世界大战的早期，也就是美国在欧洲和太平洋的战况不尽人意之时。股市在1942年4月触底，在那时盟军的命运的转折点还没有到来。同样的，20世纪80年代的早期，买入股票的时机恰好是通胀爆发而经济低迷的时期。简单来说，坏消息是投资者的好朋友。它能让你以折价买入美国未来的一小部分。

A little history here: During the Depression, the Dow hit its low, 41, on July 8, 1932. Economic conditions, though, kept deteriorating until Franklin D. Roosevelt took office in March 1933. By that time, the market had already advanced 30 percent. Or think back to the early days of World War II, when things were going badly for the United States in Europe and the Pacific. The market hit bottom in April 1942, well before Allied fortunes turned. Again, in the early 1980s, the time to buy stocks was when inflation raged and the economy was in the tank. In short, bad news is an investor’s best friend. It lets you buy a slice of America’s future at a marked-down price.

长期来看，股市的新闻将会带来好消息。20世纪，美国经历了两场世界大战以及一系列代价高昂损失惨重的军事冲突，大萧条，一次次金融危机和市场恐慌，油荒，流感疫情，一位蒙羞的总统的退位。然而道琼斯从66点直至11,497点。

Over the long term, the stock market news will be good. In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497.

你可能会认为一个投资者在如此有利的投资环境里面不可能出现损失。但是有些投资者却确实亏损了。那些不幸的人们在他们认为能够投资的时候才入市，在头条让他们惊慌的时候就卖出。

You might think it would have been impossible for an investor to lose money during a century marked by such an extraordinary gain. But some investors did. The hapless ones bought stocks only when they felt comfort in doing so and then proceeded to sell when the headlines made them queasy.

今天那些选择持有现金的人们会觉得安稳。而这并不应该。他们选择了一个长期来看并不如意的资产，几乎不带来收益而且迟早会贬值。更何况，政府面对缓解经融危机的一系列政策将会促进通货膨胀，也将会导致这些资产的加速贬值。

Today people who hold cash equivalents feel comfortable. They shouldn’t. They have opted for a terrible long-term asset, one that pays virtually nothing and is certain to depreciate in value. Indeed, the policies that government will follow in its efforts to alleviate the current crisis will probably prove inflationary and therefore accelerate declines in the real value of cash accounts.

权益投资的收益在未来十年几乎肯定会超过现金类资产，可能差距还会很大。这些持有现金的投资者的假设是他们能够找准合适的时间迅速转变投资类型。不过他们在等待好消息的过程中，忽略了韦恩格雷茨基的建议：“我瞄准冰球将会抵达的位置，而不是它目前的方位。”

Equities will almost certainly outperform cash over the next decade, probably by a substantial degree. Those investors who cling now to cash are betting they can efficiently time their move away from it later. In waiting for the comfort of good news, they are ignoring Wayne Gretzky’s advice: “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been.”

我不喜欢公开谈论股市的观点，我也需要再次强调我对股市未来短期的东西一无所知。尽管如此，我听从那一家在倒闭的银行里开张的餐馆的广告：“心动不如行动。”今天我的内心和我的步伐都向着股市。

I don’t like to opine on the stock market, and again I emphasize that I have no idea what the market will do in the short term. Nevertheless, I’ll follow the lead of a restaurant that opened in an empty bank building and then advertised: “Put your mouth where your money was.” Today my money and my mouth both say equities.