ST成对月频对照:缺失退出证据补充(2026-10-19)

English version

235条失败入选记录对应107个形成日/发行人事件,本次恢复 0 个。50条入场缺失全部匹配到当日停牌;220条端点缺失中205条匹配当日停牌,余15条为5个终止上市事件在N=50/100/200下的重复记录。停牌匹配来自同一供应商,只用于解释缺失,不证明成交。原篮子、日程、权重及收益结果均未改变,没有新增可执行收益或NAV。

本补充承接原月频方法与结果。原36个月中N=50/100/200的完整对照仍为15/13/9;包含ST减去排除ST的平均差仍为+0.202/−0.514/−1.028个百分点。共同9个月为−0.752/−0.927/−1.028个百分点,N50符号反转,不能把条件样本差值当作可实施收益。数据仍为2026年回溯快照,revision_safe=false。

五个终止上市事件

形成日证券原入场→端点最后clean交易日(仅上下文)结论
20230131600260 凯乐20230201→2023030120230202入场存在,端点已摘牌,结算金额未证实
20230228600311 荣华20230301→2023040320230302入场存在,端点已摘牌,结算金额未证实
20250331600070 富润20250401→2025050620250410入场存在,端点已摘牌,结算金额未证实
20250331300117 嘉寓20250401→2025050620250331入场日即停牌;端点已摘牌
20250331000040 旭蓝20250401→2025050620250331入场日即停牌;端点已摘牌

上交所凯乐公告、荣华公告和富润公告分别确认交易类终止上市、不进入退市整理期,并要求安排后续股份转让。该安排没有提供原端点可交易报价或现金结算金额。

嘉寓终止上市及摘牌公告确认4月30日摘牌;4月1日公告明确当日开市起停牌。旭蓝摘牌公告确认4月30日摘牌、不进入整理期。旭蓝文件对决定日期存在4月25日、收到日4月28日及交易所转载日4月29日的差异,保留原文差异,不强行合并成同一日期;这不改变入场停牌和端点缺失的判断。

最后交易价不是预先指定的退出规则;转板不等于按现金偿付。以后找到转板价格、赔付方案或股份确权也不能直接缝接本协议。应先另定原始价格、持仓权益、现金和继承证券账本、可用时点及执行规则。嘉寓和旭蓝尤其缺少原入场日可成交证据,补充终值也无法恢复原成对期间。

北交所历史代码核对

直接按clean代码连接停牌表时,国义招标两次形成日事件、广道两次形成日事件未匹配。经北交所新旧代码表确认831039→920039、839680→920680后,owner停牌表的831039在20230301、839680在20250701及20250901均有当日S记录。仅连接证据身份,不替换价格。四个事件全部仍是停牌阻断,没有恢复收益。国义2023-03-07公告也说明3月1日起停牌及后续继续停牌。

可复现清单及证据边界

audit_st_paired_exits.py先校验旧selection audit的SHA256,再输出每条原入选记录、107个事件清单、5个terminal证据表和输入/输出hash receipt。证据表保留原证券代码与实际停牌证据代码;不会将R复牌记录解释为S停牌,也不会根据缺少S记录认定可交易。事件来源与公告日期见已审查事实表。完整清单见下方折叠表;外部task目录另保留CSV,未覆盖旧sealed输出或共享alias。

使用项目现有Python环境执行(新uv环境下载被网络沙箱阻断)。命令中的根路径由本机workspace配置解析:

python scripts/audit_st_paired_exits.py \
  --source "$DATA_ROOT/quant/quant-market-research/research/st-paired-short-20261018/monthly-v1" \
  --suspensions "$DATA_ROOT/quant/quant-market-data-platform/assets/tushare/a_share/suspend_d_20260917/suspend_d.parquet" \
  --facts docs/research/experiments/st-exit-reviewed-facts-20261019.json \
  --output "$DATA_ROOT/quant/quant-market-research/research/st-exit-evidence-20261019/monthly-v2"

输出路径必须全新。owner已有terminal_event_document_facts只覆盖000562及601268,和本次五家不匹配;它没有本次可借用的结算事实。此次没有新供应商API调用,没有证明完整公司行为覆盖或账户结算。所有235条失败记录均保持unresolved;不得以零、全损、末价持平或未来新成员代填。

107条形成日/发行人事件
FormationEntryEndpointSecurityNArmsMissingTerminal
202301312023020120230301002499.SZ50/100/200IendFalse
202301312023020120230301600139.SH100/200IendFalse
202301312023020120230301600260.SH50/100/200IendTrue
202301312023020120230301920039.BJ100/200E/IendFalse
202302282023030120230403300309.SZ200IendFalse
202302282023030120230403600311.SH50/100/200IendTrue
202302282023030120230403920039.BJ100/200E/IentryFalse
202303312023040320230504000023.SZ200E/IendFalse
202303312023040320230504000150.SZ200IendFalse
202303312023040320230504000806.SZ200IendFalse
202303312023040320230504002417.SZ100/200IendFalse
202303312023040320230504002751.SZ200IendFalse
202303312023040320230504002781.SZ100/200IendFalse
202303312023040320230504300089.SZ200IendFalse
202303312023040320230504300297.SZ200IendFalse
202303312023040320230504300392.SZ200IendFalse
202303312023040320230504600242.SH50/100/200IendFalse
202303312023040320230504600781.SH100/200IendFalse
202303312023040320230504603030.SH200E/IendFalse
202303312023040320230504688086.SH50/100/200IendFalse
202303312023040320230504688555.SH50/100/200IendFalse
202304282023050420230601000023.SZ200E/IentryFalse
202304282023050420230601000606.SZ100/200Ientry,endFalse
202304282023050420230601000806.SZ200Ientry,endFalse
202304282023050420230601002751.SZ200Ientry,endFalse
202304282023050420230601002781.SZ50/100/200Ientry,endFalse
202304282023050420230601300089.SZ50/100/200Ientry,endFalse
202304282023050420230601300273.SZ200Ientry,endFalse
202304282023050420230601300392.SZ50/100/200Ientry,endFalse
202304282023050420230601600122.SH200IendFalse
202304282023050420230601600242.SH50/100/200IentryFalse
202304282023050420230601600781.SH100/200IentryFalse
202304282023050420230601603030.SH200E/IentryFalse
202305312023060120230703000616.SZ200IendFalse
202305312023060120230703000691.SZ200EendFalse
202305312023060120230703000732.SZ200IendFalse
202305312023060120230703000918.SZ200Ientry,endFalse
202305312023060120230703002113.SZ200IendFalse
202305312023060120230703002118.SZ200IendFalse
202305312023060120230703002504.SZ100/200IendFalse
202305312023060120230703300163.SZ200EendFalse
202305312023060120230703600077.SH200IendFalse
202305312023060120230703600393.SH200IendFalse
202306302023070320230801300163.SZ200EentryFalse
202311302023120120240102002776.SZ50/100/200IendFalse
202311302023120120240102600290.SH50/100/200IendFalse
202312292024010220240201002740.SZ50/100/200IendFalse
202401312024020120240301002089.SZ200IendFalse
202401312024020120240301603603.SH200IendFalse
202402292024030120240401000005.SZ200IendFalse
202403292024040120240506000416.SZ50/100/200IendFalse
202403292024040120240506000996.SZ200IendFalse
202403292024040120240506002087.SZ100/200IendFalse
202403292024040120240506002433.SZ200IendFalse
202403292024040120240506002699.SZ200IendFalse
202403292024040120240506300282.SZ50/100/200IendFalse
202403292024040120240506300742.SZ50/100/200IendFalse
202403292024040120240506603133.SH200IendFalse
202404302024050620240603300282.SZ50/100/200Ientry,endFalse
202404302024050620240603300495.SZ50/100/200IendFalse
202404302024050620240603300742.SZ50/100/200Ientry,endFalse
202405312024060320240701000836.SZ100/200IendFalse
202405312024060320240701000971.SZ100/200IendFalse
202405312024060320240701002288.SZ200IendFalse
202405312024060320240701002621.SZ50/100/200IendFalse
202405312024060320240701300262.SZ50/100/200IendFalse
202405312024060320240701600220.SH200IendFalse
202405312024060320240701600836.SH50/100/200IendFalse
202406282024070120240801000023.SZ50/100/200IendFalse
202406282024070120240801002325.SZ100/200Ientry,endFalse
202406282024070120240801002341.SZ200IendFalse
202406282024070120240801002435.SZ50/100/200IendFalse
202406282024070120240801002502.SZ200IendFalse
202406282024070120240801600112.SH50/100/200IendFalse
202407312024080120240902002308.SZ100/200IendFalse
202410312024110120241202000929.SZ200EentryFalse
202410312024110120241202002656.SZ50/100/200IendFalse
202410312024110120241202600289.SH100/200IendFalse
202411292024120220250102002494.SZ200E/IendFalse
202412312025010220250205000040.SZ200IendFalse
202412312025010220250205600083.SH50/100/200IendFalse
202412312025010220250205600898.SH50/100/200IendFalse
202501272025020520250303603963.SH50/100/200IendFalse
202502282025030320250401300117.SZ50/100/200IendFalse
202502282025030320250401300630.SZ50/100/200IendFalse
202502282025030320250401605081.SH50/100/200E/IendFalse
202503312025040120250506000040.SZ50/100/200Ientry,endTrue
202503312025040120250506000622.SZ50/100/200IendFalse
202503312025040120250506002750.SZ50/100/200IendFalse
202503312025040120250506300108.SZ50/100/200IendFalse
202503312025040120250506300117.SZ50/100/200Ientry,endTrue
202503312025040120250506300208.SZ200IendFalse
202503312025040120250506600070.SH50/100/200IendTrue
202503312025040120250506600387.SH200IendFalse
202503312025040120250506600462.SH50/100/200IendFalse
202504302025050620250603000622.SZ50/100/200Ientry,endFalse
202504302025050620250603002199.SZ100/200IendFalse
202504302025050620250603300208.SZ50/100/200Ientry,endFalse
202505302025060320250701300478.SZ200E/IendFalse
202505302025060320250701920680.BJ50/100/200IendFalse
202507312025080120250901920680.BJ50/100/200IendFalse
202508292025090120251009000851.SZ50/100/200IendFalse
202508292025090120251009603843.SH200IendFalse
202510312025110320251201300379.SZ50/100/200IendFalse
202510312025110320251201600200.SH50/100/200IendFalse
202510312025110320251201603388.SH50/100/200IendFalse
202511282025120120260105920641.BJ50/100/200E/IendFalse

I为包含ST,E为排除ST,均保留原等权。