ST paired monthly comparison: missing exit evidence (2026-10-19)

Chinese version

The 235 failed selected rows represent 107 formation/issuer events. Zero events were restored. All 50 missing entry rows match dated suspensions. Of 220 missing endpoint rows, 205 match dated suspensions; the remaining 15 are five terminal events repeated across N=50/100/200. Suspension matches corroborate absence using the same provider; they do not establish fills. Baskets, dates, weights and returns remain unchanged. There is no new executable return or NAV.

This supplements the original monthly study. Complete pairs remain 15/13/9 out of 36 months for N=50/100/200, with mean include-minus-exclude differences of +0.202/−0.514/−1.028 percentage points. On the common nine months they remain −0.752/−0.927/−1.028 points. The N50 sign reversal illustrates conditional sample selection. Inputs remain retrospective 2026 snapshots with revision_safe=false.

Five terminal events

FormationSecurityScheduled entry → endpointLast clean trade date, context onlyRemaining blocker
20230131600260 Kaile20230201 → 2023030120230202Entry observed; terminal endpoint without verified settlement
20230228600311 Ronghua20230301 → 2023040320230302Entry observed; terminal endpoint without verified settlement
20250331600070 Furun20250401 → 2025050620250410Entry observed; terminal endpoint without verified settlement
20250331300117 Jiayu20250401 → 2025050620250331Entry already suspended; terminal endpoint
20250331000040 Dongxu Azure20250401 → 2025050620250331Entry already suspended; terminal endpoint

The SSE decisions for 600260, 600311, and 600070 establish trading-triggered termination without a delisting trading period and require arrangements for subsequent share transfer. They provide neither a tradable scheduled endpoint quote nor a cash settlement amount.

Jiayu’s delisting notice confirms April 30 removal, while its April 1 notice states suspension starts at that day’s open. Dongxu Azure’s issuer notice confirms April 30 removal and no delisting trading period. Its documents give differing decision/receipt/republication dates (April 25/28/29); those source differences are retained. They do not change the missing entry and endpoint evidence.

A last trade is not a prespecified exit. Share transfer is not cash repayment. Future transfer quotes, compensation terms or registration documents cannot be stitched into this protocol automatically. A separate protocol would need raw prices, share entitlements, successor securities and cash accounting, dated availability and execution rules. Terminal value alone cannot restore Jiayu or Dongxu Azure because their scheduled entries were already suspended.

Beijing exchange identity checks

Four formation/issuer events initially lacked direct suspension matches: two for Guoyi and two for Guangdao. The BSE code mapping establishes 831039→920039 and 839680→920680. The owner’s dated suspension table records S for 831039 on 20230301 and for 839680 on 20250701 and 20250901. The alias is used only to join suspension evidence. All four remain blocked; no price is substituted. Guoyi’s March 7, 2023 notice also documents the March 1 suspension and its continuation.

Reproduction and limits

audit_st_paired_exits.py verifies the frozen selection audit SHA256, then produces the 235 selected rows, 107 distinct events, five terminal evidence matches and an input/output hash receipt. It preserves both basket code and suspension evidence code. Resume (R) events never count as suspension (S); absence of S never proves tradability. See the reviewed facts and the complete event inventory below. CSVs are retained in a dedicated external task directory; frozen outputs and shared aliases were not changed.

Run with the existing project Python environment (new uv environment downloads were blocked by the network sandbox), resolving DATA_ROOT from local workspace settings:

python scripts/audit_st_paired_exits.py \
  --source "$DATA_ROOT/quant/quant-market-research/research/st-paired-short-20261018/monthly-v1" \
  --suspensions "$DATA_ROOT/quant/quant-market-data-platform/assets/tushare/a_share/suspend_d_20260917/suspend_d.parquet" \
  --facts docs/research/experiments/st-exit-reviewed-facts-20261019.json \
  --output "$DATA_ROOT/quant/quant-market-research/research/st-exit-evidence-20261019/monthly-v2"

The output directory must be new. Existing owner terminal-document facts cover only 000562 and 601268, neither matching this sample. No new provider API was called; this audit does not certify comprehensive corporate-action coverage or account settlement. Every failed row remains unresolved, without zero, total-loss, stale-price or future-constituent substitution.

107 formation / issuer events
FormationEntryEndpointSecurityNArmsMissingTerminal
202301312023020120230301002499.SZ50/100/200IendFalse
202301312023020120230301600139.SH100/200IendFalse
202301312023020120230301600260.SH50/100/200IendTrue
202301312023020120230301920039.BJ100/200E/IendFalse
202302282023030120230403300309.SZ200IendFalse
202302282023030120230403600311.SH50/100/200IendTrue
202302282023030120230403920039.BJ100/200E/IentryFalse
202303312023040320230504000023.SZ200E/IendFalse
202303312023040320230504000150.SZ200IendFalse
202303312023040320230504000806.SZ200IendFalse
202303312023040320230504002417.SZ100/200IendFalse
202303312023040320230504002751.SZ200IendFalse
202303312023040320230504002781.SZ100/200IendFalse
202303312023040320230504300089.SZ200IendFalse
202303312023040320230504300297.SZ200IendFalse
202303312023040320230504300392.SZ200IendFalse
202303312023040320230504600242.SH50/100/200IendFalse
202303312023040320230504600781.SH100/200IendFalse
202303312023040320230504603030.SH200E/IendFalse
202303312023040320230504688086.SH50/100/200IendFalse
202303312023040320230504688555.SH50/100/200IendFalse
202304282023050420230601000023.SZ200E/IentryFalse
202304282023050420230601000606.SZ100/200Ientry,endFalse
202304282023050420230601000806.SZ200Ientry,endFalse
202304282023050420230601002751.SZ200Ientry,endFalse
202304282023050420230601002781.SZ50/100/200Ientry,endFalse
202304282023050420230601300089.SZ50/100/200Ientry,endFalse
202304282023050420230601300273.SZ200Ientry,endFalse
202304282023050420230601300392.SZ50/100/200Ientry,endFalse
202304282023050420230601600122.SH200IendFalse
202304282023050420230601600242.SH50/100/200IentryFalse
202304282023050420230601600781.SH100/200IentryFalse
202304282023050420230601603030.SH200E/IentryFalse
202305312023060120230703000616.SZ200IendFalse
202305312023060120230703000691.SZ200EendFalse
202305312023060120230703000732.SZ200IendFalse
202305312023060120230703000918.SZ200Ientry,endFalse
202305312023060120230703002113.SZ200IendFalse
202305312023060120230703002118.SZ200IendFalse
202305312023060120230703002504.SZ100/200IendFalse
202305312023060120230703300163.SZ200EendFalse
202305312023060120230703600077.SH200IendFalse
202305312023060120230703600393.SH200IendFalse
202306302023070320230801300163.SZ200EentryFalse
202311302023120120240102002776.SZ50/100/200IendFalse
202311302023120120240102600290.SH50/100/200IendFalse
202312292024010220240201002740.SZ50/100/200IendFalse
202401312024020120240301002089.SZ200IendFalse
202401312024020120240301603603.SH200IendFalse
202402292024030120240401000005.SZ200IendFalse
202403292024040120240506000416.SZ50/100/200IendFalse
202403292024040120240506000996.SZ200IendFalse
202403292024040120240506002087.SZ100/200IendFalse
202403292024040120240506002433.SZ200IendFalse
202403292024040120240506002699.SZ200IendFalse
202403292024040120240506300282.SZ50/100/200IendFalse
202403292024040120240506300742.SZ50/100/200IendFalse
202403292024040120240506603133.SH200IendFalse
202404302024050620240603300282.SZ50/100/200Ientry,endFalse
202404302024050620240603300495.SZ50/100/200IendFalse
202404302024050620240603300742.SZ50/100/200Ientry,endFalse
202405312024060320240701000836.SZ100/200IendFalse
202405312024060320240701000971.SZ100/200IendFalse
202405312024060320240701002288.SZ200IendFalse
202405312024060320240701002621.SZ50/100/200IendFalse
202405312024060320240701300262.SZ50/100/200IendFalse
202405312024060320240701600220.SH200IendFalse
202405312024060320240701600836.SH50/100/200IendFalse
202406282024070120240801000023.SZ50/100/200IendFalse
202406282024070120240801002325.SZ100/200Ientry,endFalse
202406282024070120240801002341.SZ200IendFalse
202406282024070120240801002435.SZ50/100/200IendFalse
202406282024070120240801002502.SZ200IendFalse
202406282024070120240801600112.SH50/100/200IendFalse
202407312024080120240902002308.SZ100/200IendFalse
202410312024110120241202000929.SZ200EentryFalse
202410312024110120241202002656.SZ50/100/200IendFalse
202410312024110120241202600289.SH100/200IendFalse
202411292024120220250102002494.SZ200E/IendFalse
202412312025010220250205000040.SZ200IendFalse
202412312025010220250205600083.SH50/100/200IendFalse
202412312025010220250205600898.SH50/100/200IendFalse
202501272025020520250303603963.SH50/100/200IendFalse
202502282025030320250401300117.SZ50/100/200IendFalse
202502282025030320250401300630.SZ50/100/200IendFalse
202502282025030320250401605081.SH50/100/200E/IendFalse
202503312025040120250506000040.SZ50/100/200Ientry,endTrue
202503312025040120250506000622.SZ50/100/200IendFalse
202503312025040120250506002750.SZ50/100/200IendFalse
202503312025040120250506300108.SZ50/100/200IendFalse
202503312025040120250506300117.SZ50/100/200Ientry,endTrue
202503312025040120250506300208.SZ200IendFalse
202503312025040120250506600070.SH50/100/200IendTrue
202503312025040120250506600387.SH200IendFalse
202503312025040120250506600462.SH50/100/200IendFalse
202504302025050620250603000622.SZ50/100/200Ientry,endFalse
202504302025050620250603002199.SZ100/200IendFalse
202504302025050620250603300208.SZ50/100/200Ientry,endFalse
202505302025060320250701300478.SZ200E/IendFalse
202505302025060320250701920680.BJ50/100/200IendFalse
202507312025080120250901920680.BJ50/100/200IendFalse
202508292025090120251009000851.SZ50/100/200IendFalse
202508292025090120251009603843.SH200IendFalse
202510312025110320251201300379.SZ50/100/200IendFalse
202510312025110320251201600200.SH50/100/200IendFalse
202510312025110320251201603388.SH50/100/200IendFalse
202511282025120120260105920641.BJ50/100/200E/IendFalse

I = include ST; E = exclude ST. Both arms retain original equal weights.