Latest edition

Weekly market and style research

Value regime · Neutral · 3 weeks

12-week return (%)
2.25%
Size direction
Large-cap leadership
Small-cap crowding
0.4934
Large-cap crowding
0.7982

Generated:

12-week return (%)

%
15.321.07-13.18
12-week return (%)

12-week return (%) · — · 104 observations

Data through: 2026-10-23 · 104 observations

Wealth index

Index level
6.655.975.29
Wealth index

Wealth index · — · 104 observations

Data through: 2026-10-23 · 104 observations

Relative strength

Ratio
0.670.610.54
Relative strength

Relative strength · — · 252 observations

Data through: 2026-10-23 · 252 observations

Size strength and crowding

0–1
10.50
Size strength and crowding

Small-cap crowding (0–1) · — · 252 observations

Large-cap crowding (0–1) · — · 252 observations

Data through: 2026-10-23 · 252 observations

Weekly market context

Week of 2026-10-19; data through 2026-10-23

Market conditions: choppy with a downward bias. This week had 5 trading days: 2 up days and 3 down days. The daily average share of advancing stocks was 47%; the average stock return was +0.00%.

Turnover: weekly total CNY 7.88 trillion; daily average CNY 1.58 trillion.

Fund flows: weekly net outflows of major funds totaled CNY 341 hundred million.

Limit-up counts: 268 over the week; daily average 53.6.

Limit-up counts were at a moderate level.

Overseas gold: from USD 4159 at the start of the week, the price fell to USD 4044; the weekly return was -2.7%, ending weaker overall.

Gold fluctuated substantially this week (2.7%). Overseas markets may affect the A-share precious-metals sector at next week’s open.

Weekly market style report

Week of 2026-10-19; data through 2026-10-23

Value factor

Calculation method: industry neutralization.

Data status: complete; covers the target cutoff for this report.

01 Current state

Neutral; has persisted for 3 weeks.

02 Evidence

Cumulative return over the past 12 weeks: +2.3% (higher than approximately 52% of historical samples)

Cumulative return over the past 52 weeks: +9.8%

Current drawdown: 0.0% (historical maximum drawdown at weekly frequency: -19.0%)

Annualized volatility over the past 12 weeks: 18.6%

Share of positive weeks over the past 12 weeks: 75%

03 Historical reference

Historically, the current state occurred in 668 weeks across 51 continuous episodes. Forward-return windows overlap, so the number of independent samples is smaller than the number of weeks.

Next 4 weeks: median return +0.6%; positive-return rate 57% (665 weekly samples)

Next 13 weeks: median return +2.3%; positive-return rate 68% (665 weekly samples)

Next 26 weeks: median return +3.7%; positive-return rate 71% (653 weekly samples)

Next 52 weeks: median return +9.5%; positive-return rate 74% (627 weekly samples)

Using only the first week of each episode, the positive-return rate over the next 13 weeks is 70% (50 samples). For the full sample, the positive-return rate over the next 13 weeks is 68%.

04 What to watch next week

The current direction is unclear.

The current value-style allocation can be maintained; avoid frequent adjustments based on a single week of fluctuations.

Alternative calculation methods

See the documentation for the meaning of each method. Data for this report follow:

Basic inverse price-to-book ratio (through 2026-10-23): cumulative return over the past 12 weeks +2.3%, higher than approximately 52% of historical samples. Cumulative return over the past 52 weeks +9.8%; current drawdown 0.0%. Historically, median return over the next 13 weeks +2.3%; positive-return rate 68%.

Composite value measure (through 2026-10-23): cumulative return over the past 12 weeks -2.3%, higher than approximately 21% of historical samples. Cumulative return over the past 52 weeks +4.2%; current drawdown -2.3%. Historically, median return over the next 13 weeks +1.7%; positive-return rate 65%.

The basic inverse price-to-book ratio and composite value measure are updated weekly. Both tradability-screened results come from the latest separate historical recalculation, are updated less frequently, and may have earlier cutoff dates. Align data dates before comparing.

Size factor (market style)

Data through 2026-10-23

01 Current state

Crowding zone: low crowding.

Small-cap crowding: 0.493

Large-cap crowding: 0.798. A reading below 0.10 triggers high small-cap crowding.

Direction signal: large caps lead (using 20-day and 60-day moving averages).

02 Reading the evidence

Crowding determines the moving-average windows. High crowding uses 5-day and 20-day moving averages to track style changes promptly. Low crowding uses 20-day and 60-day moving averages to focus on medium-term trends.

Direction is determined by the relative strength of the CSI 300 versus the CSI 1000. Large caps lead when the short moving average is above the long moving average. Otherwise, small caps lead. Crowding affects only the moving-average windows.

04 What to watch next week

Watch whether the short moving average of relative strength falls below the long moving average.

Watch whether crowding evidence over the past 20 days falls below 0.90.

This signal is for observing market style and is not trading advice.

Evidence and source records

Generated: 2026-10-24T03:58:04.073020+00:00

Value history · Data through: 2026-10-23 · research.weekly_analysis.v1 · SHA-256: f20291216073c74ce75381773b01f58a8c226c356928670b0036a69c9712c739

Size strength and crowding · Data through: 2026-10-23 · research.weekly_analysis.v1 · SHA-256: 1efd86470dc69f39da2344e0b5be5b3bedd392aeee4c565f23a8fda5cd780deb

SHA-256: 6b7bf7ce3128472c42f1827cfc8a6054b27d251b1955a1537b3e8f7583d1c6ad

Research reference only. Data dates and source identities are preserved below; no new signals are calculated by this page.

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Weekly market and style research · 2026-10-23Q QUANT MARKET INTEL2026-10-23Weekly market and style researchObserved 2026-10-23Weekly market and style researchValue regime: Neutral · Time in current regime: 3 weeksSize direction: Large-cap leadership12-week return (%): 2.25% · Small-cap crowding: 0.4934 · Large-cap crowding: 0.798212-week return (%)%15.321.07-13.1812-week return (%) · 2024-11-01 — 2026-10-23 · 104 observationsData through: 2026-10-23 · 104 observationsWealth indexIndex level6.655.975.29Wealth index · 2024-11-01 — 2026-10-23 · 104 observationsData through: 2026-10-23 · 104 observationsRelative strengthRatio0.670.610.54Relative strength · 2025-08-15 — 2026-10-23 · 252 observationsData through: 2026-10-23 · 252 observationsSize strength and crowding0–110.50Small-cap crowding (0–1) · 2025-08-15 — 2026-10-23 · 252 observationsLarge-cap crowding (0–1) · 2025-08-15 — 2026-10-23 · 252 observationsData through: 2026-10-23 · 252 observationsWeekly market contextWeek of 2026-10-19; data through 2026-10-23Market conditions: choppy with a downward bias. This week had 5 trading days: 2 up days and 3 down days. The dailyaverage share of advancing stocks was 47%; the average stock return was +0.00%.Turnover: weekly total CNY 7.88 trillion; daily average CNY 1.58 trillion.Fund flows: weekly net outflows of major funds totaled CNY 341 hundred million.Limit-up counts: 268 over the week; daily average 53.6.Limit-up counts were at a moderate level.Overseas gold: from USD 4159 at the start of the week, the price fell to USD 4044; the weekly return was -2.7%,ending weaker overall.Gold fluctuated substantially this week (2.7%). Overseas markets may affect the A-share precious-metals sector atnext week’s open.Weekly market style reportWeek of 2026-10-19; data through 2026-10-23Value factorCalculation method: industry neutralization.Data status: complete; covers the target cutoff for this report.01 Current stateNeutral; has persisted for 3 weeks.02 EvidenceCumulative return over the past 12 weeks: +2.3% (higher than approximately 52% of historical samples)Cumulative return over the past 52 weeks: +9.8%Current drawdown: 0.0% (historical maximum drawdown at weekly frequency: -19.0%)Annualized volatility over the past 12 weeks: 18.6%Share of positive weeks over the past 12 weeks: 75%03 Historical referenceHistorically, the current state occurred in 668 weeks across 51 continuous episodes. Forward-return windows overlap,so the number of independent samples is smaller than the number of weeks.Next 4 weeks: median return +0.6%; positive-return rate 57% (665 weekly samples)Next 13 weeks: median return +2.3%; positive-return rate 68% (665 weekly samples)Next 26 weeks: median return +3.7%; positive-return rate 71% (653 weekly samples)Next 52 weeks: median return +9.5%; positive-return rate 74% (627 weekly samples)Using only the first week of each episode, the positive-return rate over the next 13 weeks is 70% (50 samples). Forthe full sample, the positive-return rate over the next 13 weeks is 68%.04 What to watch next weekThe current direction is unclear.The current value-style allocation can be maintained; avoid frequent adjustments based on a single week offluctuations.Alternative calculation methodsSee the documentation for the meaning of each method. Data for this report follow:Basic inverse price-to-book ratio (through 2026-10-23): cumulative return over the past 12 weeks +2.3%, higher thanapproximately 52% of historical samples. Cumulative return over the past 52 weeks +9.8%; current drawdown 0.0%.Historically, median return over the next 13 weeks +2.3%; positive-return rate 68%.Composite value measure (through 2026-10-23): cumulative return over the past 12 weeks -2.3%, higher thanapproximately 21% of historical samples. Cumulative return over the past 52 weeks +4.2%; current drawdown -2.3%.Historically, median return over the next 13 weeks +1.7%; positive-return rate 65%.The basic inverse price-to-book ratio and composite value measure are updated weekly. Both tradability-screenedresults come from the latest separate historical recalculation, are updated less frequently, and may have earliercutoff dates. Align data dates before comparing.Size factor (market style)Data through 2026-10-2301 Current stateCrowding zone: low crowding.Small-cap crowding: 0.493Large-cap crowding: 0.798. A reading below 0.10 triggers high small-cap crowding.Direction signal: large caps lead (using 20-day and 60-day moving averages).02 Reading the evidenceCrowding determines the moving-average windows. High crowding uses 5-day and 20-day moving averages to track stylechanges promptly. Low crowding uses 20-day and 60-day moving averages to focus on medium-term trends.Direction is determined by the relative strength of the CSI 300 versus the CSI 1000. Large caps lead when the shortmoving average is above the long moving average. Otherwise, small caps lead. Crowding affects only the moving-averagewindows.04 What to watch next weekWatch whether the short moving average of relative strength falls below the long moving average.Watch whether crowding evidence over the past 20 days falls below 0.90.This signal is for observing market style and is not trading advice.Research reference only. Source dates and limitations remain part of the report.
Original Chinese report

Source Markdown

本周市场背景

2026-10-19 当周,数据截至 2026-10-23

盘面特征:震荡偏弱。本周 5 个交易日,2 天上涨、3 天下跌。日均上涨家数占比 47%,个股平均涨幅 +0.00%。

成交情况:周总成交额 7.88 万亿元,日均 1.58 万亿元。

资金动向:全周主力资金净流出 341 亿元。

涨停统计:全周涨停 268 只,日均涨停 53.6 只。 涨停数量处于中等水平。

外盘黄金:本周从 4159 美元降至 4044 美元,周涨跌幅为 -2.7%,整体走弱。 黄金本周波动较大(2.7%)。A 股贵金属板块下周开盘可能受到外盘影响。

市场风格周报

2026-10-19 当周,数据截至 2026-10-23

价值因子

计算方法:行业中性化。

数据状态:完整,已覆盖本期目标截止日。

01 当前状态

中性,已持续 3 周。

02 证据

  • 过去 12 周累计:+2.3%(高于约 52% 的历史样本)
  • 过去 52 周累计:+9.8%
  • 当前回撤:0.0%(周频历史最大回撤 -19.0%)
  • 过去 12 周年化波动率:18.6%
  • 过去 12 周上涨周占比:75%

03 历史参考

历史上,当前状态共出现 668 周,分布在 51 段连续时期。后续收益的统计区间有重叠,独立样本数少于周数。

  • 后续 4 周:收益中位数 +0.6%,正收益比例 57%(665 周样本)
  • 后续 13 周:收益中位数 +2.3%,正收益比例 68%(665 周样本)
  • 后续 26 周:收益中位数 +3.7%,正收益比例 71%(653 周样本)
  • 后续 52 周:收益中位数 +9.5%,正收益比例 74%(627 周样本)

只取每段状态的第一周,后续 13 周正收益比例为 70%(50 个样本)。全样本的后续 13 周正收益比例为 68%。

04 下周观察

  • 当前方向不明显。
  • 配置上可保持当前的价值风格比例,避免根据单周波动频繁调整。

不同计算方法

各方法的含义见说明文档。本期数据如下:

  • 基础市净率倒数(截至 2026-10-23):过去 12 周累计 +2.3%,高于约 52% 的历史样本。过去 52 周累计 +9.8%,当前回撤 0.0%。历史上,后续 13 周收益中位数 +2.3%,正收益比例 68%。
  • 综合价值指标(截至 2026-10-23):过去 12 周累计 -2.3%,高于约 21% 的历史样本。过去 52 周累计 +4.2%,当前回撤 -2.3%。历史上,后续 13 周收益中位数 +1.7%,正收益比例 65%。

基础市净率倒数和综合价值指标每周更新。可交易筛选的两项结果来自最近一次单独回算,更新频率较低,截止日期也可能更早。比较时请先对齐数据日期。

大小盘因子(风格)

数据截至 2026-10-23

01 当前状态

拥挤区间:低拥挤。

  • 小盘拥挤度:0.493
  • 大盘拥挤度:0.798。低于 0.10 时触发小盘高拥挤。

方向信号:大盘占优(采用 20 日和 60 日均线)。

02 证据怎么读

拥挤程度用于选择均线周期。高拥挤时采用 5 日和 20 日均线,及时观察风格变化。低拥挤时采用 20 日和 60 日均线,侧重观察中期趋势。

方向由沪深 300 与中证 1000 的相对强弱决定。短期均线高于长期均线时,大盘占优。其余情况下,小盘占优。拥挤程度只影响均线周期。

04 下周观察

  • 观察相对强弱短均线是否跌破长均线。
  • 观察近 20 日拥挤证据是否回落至 0.90 以下。

本信号用于观察市场风格,不构成交易建议。

Explore historical observations

Value history

Size strength and crowding

Accessible observation tables

Value history

Observation date12-week return (%)Wealth index
2024-11-01-1.4684245.711884
2024-11-08-1.8279785.704262
2024-11-15-0.6541835.774875
2024-11-220.9418525.888965
2024-11-290.4715255.850303
2024-12-061.1113925.863968
2024-12-130.2204455.815696
2024-12-20-0.5212095.816284
2024-12-272.8136175.961129
2025-01-034.1539876.001727
2025-01-105.5720825.924772
2025-01-174.8998765.891132
2025-01-243.5328525.913677
2025-01-314.6114795.967313
2025-02-072.4384655.915694
2025-02-140.4713675.916723
2025-02-21-0.6180635.814145
2025-02-280.4010435.887485
2025-03-070.8175565.863243
2025-03-142.3696195.954108
2025-03-210.7514786.005925
2025-03-280.7544526.047007
2025-04-042.5664586.076829
2025-04-112.0803486.013688
2025-04-182.1555146.041147
2025-04-251.5721446.061128
2025-05-021.7069566.016672
2025-05-091.636436.013546
2025-05-163.5824156.022431
2025-05-231.7259355.989099
2025-05-302.8352716.029481
2025-06-060.5951185.989542
2025-06-13-0.6411435.967419
2025-06-200.0360256.049186
2025-06-27-0.8819396.023235
2025-07-040.8270366.063423
2025-07-110.7684576.08757
2025-07-18-0.269146.044815
2025-07-251.7162416.119933
2025-08-011.1002356.079709
2025-08-080.1576516.031926
2025-08-15-0.9340535.933158
2025-08-22-2.3663445.886803
2025-08-29-2.2614615.854091
2025-09-05-1.027515.906103
2025-09-12-2.8276455.878136
2025-09-19-2.694445.860942
2025-09-26-3.0267885.879896
2025-10-03-3.5391475.872122
2025-10-10-1.0469845.981527
2025-10-17-1.7008236.015843
2025-10-24-1.4418235.992051
2025-10-31-0.8585185.980141
2025-11-072.3534296.072791
2025-11-143.1816296.074099
2025-11-213.3241026.048687
2025-11-281.0975925.970928
2025-12-052.7093816.037398
2025-12-121.5626075.952526
2025-12-193.3192146.075063
2025-12-261.8669215.98175
2026-01-02-0.1516625.972455
2026-01-09-2.2394725.88112
2026-01-16-1.8016795.884093
2026-01-23-0.5629695.946474
2026-01-30-0.4325646.046522
2026-02-06-0.226316.060353
2026-02-13-0.4743116.019997
2026-02-200.8218026.019997
2026-02-27-0.1309636.029491
2026-03-062.089486.076903
2026-03-131.8883426.189781
2026-03-202.7934546.148848
2026-03-271.7943486.079622
2026-04-033.2119386.070018
2026-04-102.085366.006798
2026-04-17-0.7150635.903953
2026-04-24-2.0864625.920364
2026-05-01-3.0526845.87535
2026-05-08-4.8882745.725723
2026-05-15-6.2104615.646128
2026-05-22-7.6092215.570693
2026-05-29-7.0025985.651362
2026-06-05-8.3161215.675031
2026-06-12-7.7741225.670829
2026-06-19-11.0965965.404991
2026-06-26-11.6529355.362683
2026-07-03-9.5815725.431252
2026-07-10-4.7813125.621667
2026-07-173.7481516.142268
2026-07-246.4128256.252125
2026-07-3112.3990436.435658
2026-08-076.6077666.019211
2026-08-147.13415.968112
2026-08-217.0685686.050832
2026-08-287.4185396.096035
2026-09-048.1401926.132445
2026-09-1113.7908116.150383
2026-09-1812.0157616.00705
2026-09-2511.3899736.04987
2026-10-0210.6721086.221617
2026-10-093.3027396.345131
2026-10-164.7132346.546803
2026-10-232.2539386.580714

Size strength and crowding

Observation dateRelative strengthSmall-cap crowding (0–1)Large-cap crowding (0–1)
2025-08-150.5904250.8529980.190816
2025-08-180.5857480.8543290.185157
2025-08-190.5831090.8539290.174236
2025-08-200.5846850.850410.186584
2025-08-210.5911850.8315630.218369
2025-08-220.5945990.8152280.249891
2025-08-250.5976710.8028790.307734
2025-08-260.5955470.8087530.294032
2025-08-270.597850.7975950.318692
2025-08-280.5993980.7941820.319891
2025-08-290.6045110.7834460.402143
2025-09-010.6030690.7661240.428631
2025-09-020.6139630.7115050.488981
2025-09-030.618830.6912480.527059
2025-09-040.6199560.6840250.551906
2025-09-050.6155850.6901590.544336
2025-09-080.6110730.6957620.537501
2025-09-090.6139280.6790680.573841
2025-09-100.6148360.6808670.587939
2025-09-110.6146090.6826710.593375
2025-09-120.6091970.7208240.569258
2025-09-150.6112890.6927120.607754
2025-09-160.6044310.7145280.53343
2025-09-170.6024010.7385090.531298
2025-09-180.6016410.7459180.51963
2025-09-190.6052440.7001330.534774
2025-09-220.6038620.6867220.538686
2025-09-230.6101160.6545570.585881
2025-09-240.6060440.6852960.562526
2025-09-250.6119340.6365610.599664
2025-09-260.6150720.6142750.642799
2025-09-290.6161850.5864040.671841
2025-09-300.6126360.6103360.683125
2025-10-090.6157750.601020.729929
2025-10-100.6128140.6053170.708177
2025-10-130.6109210.580570.681957
2025-10-140.6156210.5335230.730461
2025-10-150.615530.5315750.719226
2025-10-160.6239560.4828930.790418
2025-10-170.6282440.4377720.785438
2025-10-200.6268970.4184850.774171
2025-10-210.6274290.3969020.782973
2025-10-220.6280690.4017490.806144
2025-10-230.6303070.3897940.806435
2025-10-240.6281890.3836990.7955
2025-10-270.629190.3562960.796042
2025-10-280.6273340.3545260.778696
2025-10-290.6272640.3575870.776162
2025-10-300.6292390.3722370.791667
2025-10-310.6182060.4467110.710691
2025-11-030.6173160.4413670.712702
2025-11-040.6211490.4195650.740603
2025-11-050.6198720.4246440.735473
2025-11-060.6214920.4234380.75209
2025-11-070.6203750.4211320.737961
2025-11-100.6207710.4107290.728043
2025-11-110.6169330.4367910.71301
2025-11-120.6205820.4224130.720066
2025-11-130.6194620.4657520.722272
2025-11-140.6168590.4704170.680983
2025-11-170.6111930.5147570.661167
2025-11-180.6133370.532740.665874
2025-11-190.6211130.4758630.687453
2025-11-200.6218930.4993570.685145
2025-11-210.6301350.4514940.723293
2025-11-240.6215470.5120180.669914
2025-11-250.6193710.5259290.65106
2025-11-260.6232540.5226070.654522
2025-11-270.6221740.555550.651013
2025-11-280.6171980.5798210.60736
2025-12-010.6195590.5684410.635514
2025-12-020.6227570.5649780.640377
2025-12-030.6251210.5493220.617093
2025-12-040.6272290.5580980.619937
2025-12-050.6243840.5983160.600424
2025-12-080.6226220.5830020.587246
2025-12-090.6230160.5663560.593483
2025-12-100.6198270.6091140.554079
2025-12-110.6225640.6012950.563355
2025-12-120.6214880.5822270.563273
2025-12-150.6227950.5730460.570374
2025-12-160.6262590.5687880.566425
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2026-01-050.6084370.752290.353355
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2026-03-170.5782450.7083350.481828
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2026-03-190.5794810.6935930.509691
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2026-04-200.5692210.6971520.443458
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2026-10-230.6095920.4933850.7982
Source identities
{
  "value": {
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    "as_of": "2026-10-23",
    "sha256": "f20291216073c74ce75381773b01f58a8c226c356928670b0036a69c9712c739"
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  "size": {
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    "sha256": "1efd86470dc69f39da2344e0b5be5b3bedd392aeee4c565f23a8fda5cd780deb"
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}

SHA256: 6b7bf7ce3128472c42f1827cfc8a6054b27d251b1955a1537b3e8f7583d1c6ad

Research reference only. Data dates and source identities are preserved below; no new signals are calculated by this page.

Earlier weekly reports

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