Market close review (2026-10-29)

Generated: 2026-10-30 11:27:21.275304 Data date: 2026-10-29 Report generation method: backfill

本报告为历史数据补发, 生成时间是本次重建时间, 不代表当时已发布.

20261029 周四 盘后点评

I. Market state

• Status: Cool and fragile.
• Heat / fragility: 14.2 / 59.2 (observation score).
• Methodology: Heat, fragility, and six-dimension scores are market-state observation scores; they do not map directly to position sizing or constitute trading instructions.

Six-dimension observation

Dimension	observation score	Status	Evidence
Liquidity	48.4	Neutral	Turnover / historical median 0.98x; Turnover percentile 50.0%
Breadth	0	Weak	Advancing share 14.0%; Median stock return -2.6%; Above-VWAP share 13.9%
Profit effect	24.3	Weak	limit-up rate 0.7%; Share gaining over 5% 1.9%
Loss risk	87.8	高风险	limit-down rate 0.9%; Share falling over 5% 17.8%
Trend confirmation	0	Weak	Advancing index share 0.0%; Median index return -2.9%; index close position 9.1%
Rotation quality	2.1	Weak	Advancing sector share 6.2%; Median sector return -2.0%; Leader concentration 100.0%

Core tension

• N/A

Next-day validation

• 下一观察日跌幅超过 5% 的占比下降, 才算尾部亏钱效应缓和; Condition: Share falling over 5% < 17.8%

Prior-day validation review

• N/A

Data completeness and calibration

• Completeness: high (97%); Six dimensions available: 6/6.
• Warning: Profit effect and loss risk have missing inputs; observation scores were reweighted using available metrics.
• Calibration: provisional observation scale (not backtested).

II. Index overview

SSE Composite: 3651.43 [WARN] -0.82% | volume 7156.21 100m SZSE Component: 11138.20 [WARN] -2.92% | volume 4175.30 100m ChiNext Index: 2517.59 [WARN] -4.45% | volume 1736.10 100m STAR Market 50: 1228.09 [WARN] -4.27% | volume 711.00 100m CSI 300: 4041.84 [WARN] -1.03% | volume 4118.93 100m CSI 500: 6453.72 [WARN] -2.82% | volume 2715.52 100m CSI 1000: 6378.78 [WARN] -3.03% | volume 3209.32 100m

III. Market overview

Median market return [WARN] -2.60% | Turnover-weighted return -3.28% | Total turnover 1.57 trillion

Turnover-weighted return minus median 0.7pp, 高成交标的相对偏弱

Up 781 stocks | Down 4728 stocks | Flat 61 stocks | Advancing share 14.0%

Share above VWAP: 13.9% | Opening gap: -0.41% | Median intraday range: 4.04% | Closing position: 9.1%

return distribution: -inf~-9.9%:133 -9.9~-7%:317 -7~-5%:540 -5~-3%:1419 -3~-1%:1793 -10%:526 01%:355 13%:289 35%:94 57%:42 79.9%:16 9.9~inf%:46

IV. Price limits

Limit-up 39 stocks | Limit-down 52 stocks | Return>5% 104 stocks | Decline>5% 992 stocks

Longest limit-up streak: 4 sessions

Representative limit-up stocks: 光洋股份, 一鸣食品, 宇晶股份, 友阿股份, 中国卫星, 冰山冷热, 海阳科技, 东方海洋, 天顺风能, 桂林三金, 西部材料, 和泰机电

V. Money flow

Large-order flow proxy [WARN] -555.88 100m | Net inflows 690 stocks / Net outflows 2851 stocks

VI. Margin financing

Margin data unavailable (T+1 delay)

VII. Industry sectors TOP10

Industry	Average return	median	Stock count	Advancing share
Banking	+1.98%	+1.71%	42	95.2%
Coal	+0.51%	+0.38%	39	56.4%
Transportation	-0.47%	-0.38%	116	34.5%
Food and beverages	-0.59%	-0.75%	126	35.7%
Defense	-0.64%	-0.69%	135	36.3%
Utilities	-0.92%	-1.07%	102	27.5%
Non-bank financials	-1.41%	-1.51%	72	15.3%
Oil and petrochemicals	-1.42%	-1.71%	49	24.5%
Agriculture, forestry and fisheries	-1.45%	-1.59%	77	14.3%
Consumer services	-1.61%	-1.41%	57	15.8%

Worst-performing sectors: Electronics(-5.43%), Telecom(-4.03%), Other(-3.69%), Automobiles(-3.45%), Computers(-3.40%)

VIII. Top 10 high-volume core stocks

名称	Ticker	Turnover( 100m)	Return
中际旭创	300308.SZ	194.8	-8.53%
新易盛	300502.SZ	139.0	-11.06%
天孚通信	300394.SZ	125.3	-19.77%
长鑫科技	688825.SH	119.5	-3.36%
兆易创新	603986.SH	99.1	-4.79%
宁德时代	300750.SZ	85.8	-0.03%
寒武纪	688256.SH	80.8	-4.70%
东山精密	002384.SZ	69.4	-10.00%
君正股份	300223.SZ	65.8	-0.29%
亨通光电	600487.SH	62.8	-7.98%

IX. Hot concepts TOP5

concept	Return	leader	Limit-up count
太空算力	+1.89%	上海港湾(+9.98%)	1
Banking	+1.74%	青岛银行(+8.02%)	0
军工电子	+1.02%	西测测试(+11.75%)	0
低轨卫星	+0.71%	中国卫星(+10.00%)	1
HALO概念	+0.71%	中国广核(+7.22%)	0

X. Extreme movers

Top gainers: 301079.SZ 邵阳液压(+20.01%), 301232.SZ 飞沃科技(+17.09%), 300177.SZ 中海达(+14.19%), 301155.SZ 海力风电(+12.43%), 301446.SZ 福事特(+12.34%)

Top decliners: 300394.SZ 天孚通信(-19.77%), 301718.SZ(-17.58%), 920000.BJ 安徽凤凰(-16.15%), 301205.SZ 联特科技(-15.84%), 688525.SH 佰维存储(-15.79%)

海外主题研究证据

回溯探索性研究, 不是当日预测; 未经历史时点数据认证. 研究: overseas-semiconductor-sox-20261029; 样本: 2020-01-02–2026-10-16; Generated (UTC): 2026-10-29T15:46:13.930847+00:00; 源码版本: 5122f1abd54bc69037631a4d45f8e28c24a29647. MSE 改善为正表示误差下降, 为负表示误差上升; 区间跨零不能证明存在改善. sw_semiconductor.gap.lag0: sw_semiconductor; gap; 滞后 0 个交易日; n=1643; 基线=global; 增广=theme_residual; MSE 改善=0.057998, 95% 区间 [0.0340489, 0.0894525]; Source ID: 000300_sh_tushare_daily, 510300_sh_fund_adj, 510300_sh_fund_daily, 512480_sh_fund_adj, 512480_sh_fund_daily, 801081_si_sw_daily, eurusd_fxcm_fx_daily, hsi_tushare_daily, ks11_tushare_daily, n225_tushare_daily, spx_tushare_daily, usdcnh_fxcm_fx_daily, usdjpy_fxcm_fx_daily, yahoo_sox. sw_semiconductor.post_open.lag0: sw_semiconductor; post_open; 滞后 0 个交易日; n=1643; 基线=global; 增广=theme_residual; MSE 改善=0.00102981, 95% 区间 [-0.00317442, 0.00454962]; Source ID: 000300_sh_tushare_daily, 510300_sh_fund_adj, 510300_sh_fund_daily, 512480_sh_fund_adj, 512480_sh_fund_daily, 801081_si_sw_daily, eurusd_fxcm_fx_daily, hsi_tushare_daily, ks11_tushare_daily, n225_tushare_daily, spx_tushare_daily, usdcnh_fxcm_fx_daily, usdjpy_fxcm_fx_daily, yahoo_sox. sw_semiconductor.gap.lag1: sw_semiconductor; gap; 滞后 1 个交易日; n=1634; 基线=global; 增广=theme_residual; MSE 改善=-0.00164728, 95% 区间 [-0.00484915, 0.00124979]; Source ID: 000300_sh_tushare_daily, 510300_sh_fund_adj, 510300_sh_fund_daily, 512480_sh_fund_adj, 512480_sh_fund_daily, 801081_si_sw_daily, eurusd_fxcm_fx_daily, hsi_tushare_daily, ks11_tushare_daily, n225_tushare_daily, spx_tushare_daily, usdcnh_fxcm_fx_daily, usdjpy_fxcm_fx_daily, yahoo_sox. sw_semiconductor.post_open.lag1: sw_semiconductor; post_open; 滞后 1 个交易日; n=1634; 基线=global; 增广=theme_residual; MSE 改善=-0.000204282, 95% 区间 [-0.00454033, 0.00395332]; Source ID: 000300_sh_tushare_daily, 510300_sh_fund_adj, 510300_sh_fund_daily, 512480_sh_fund_adj, 512480_sh_fund_daily, 801081_si_sw_daily, eurusd_fxcm_fx_daily, hsi_tushare_daily, ks11_tushare_daily, n225_tushare_daily, spx_tushare_daily, usdcnh_fxcm_fx_daily, usdjpy_fxcm_fx_daily, yahoo_sox. 512480.next_tradable_open.lag0: 512480; next_tradable_open; 滞后 0 个交易日; n=1398; 基线=global; 增广=theme_residual; MSE 改善=-0.00104362, 95% 区间 [-0.00761677, 0.00543725]; Source ID: 000300_sh_tushare_daily, 510300_sh_fund_adj, 510300_sh_fund_daily, 512480_sh_fund_adj, 512480_sh_fund_daily, 801081_si_sw_daily, eurusd_fxcm_fx_daily, hsi_tushare_daily, ks11_tushare_daily, n225_tushare_daily, spx_tushare_daily, usdcnh_fxcm_fx_daily, usdjpy_fxcm_fx_daily, yahoo_sox. 512480.next_tradable_open.lag1: 512480; next_tradable_open; 滞后 1 个交易日; n=1390; 基线=global; 增广=theme_residual; MSE 改善=-0.00582273, 95% 区间 [-0.0142061, 0.00235395]; Source ID: 000300_sh_tushare_daily, 510300_sh_fund_adj, 510300_sh_fund_daily, 512480_sh_fund_adj, 512480_sh_fund_daily, 801081_si_sw_daily, eurusd_fxcm_fx_daily, hsi_tushare_daily, ks11_tushare_daily, n225_tushare_daily, spx_tushare_daily, usdcnh_fxcm_fx_daily, usdjpy_fxcm_fx_daily, yahoo_sox. Source hsi_tushare_daily: https://tushare.pro/document/2（SHA-256 1f0272f33ea63e6d5ef4c8974d0b0309575f8eaefdf89c166fe6bedd63f12851) Source n225_tushare_daily: https://tushare.pro/document/2（SHA-256 74e83c4cebdbbd5bd8799a83cd3803e6c1ec44359ad37e92f5364fd25e8c36f2) Source ks11_tushare_daily: https://tushare.pro/document/2（SHA-256 75fb3da91d9f660aeb37672a4a2cf038fbb25a26f879f0a11a5df1bf76c9b2c0) Source spx_tushare_daily: https://tushare.pro/document/2（SHA-256 cc86cef984a9a42cba83791c96f0567320cc3843dbde1d24a0a5e94c48c5c674) Source 000300_sh_tushare_daily: https://tushare.pro/document/2（SHA-256 560f6a471acaeaa52e75a0f6f6f8fd10d19cadc430121dac41f5014ee437d3d6) Source 801081_si_sw_daily: https://tushare.pro/document/2（SHA-256 078142f897e466eda51670793dfce10e5df2fef05a5aa22dec9d0d1a32907f36) Source usdcnh_fxcm_fx_daily: https://www.tushare.pro/document/2?doc_id=261（SHA-256 45168c9a3c6b78f9a9726d28fd5a5aa0df23f57e5b4da76ef0ec973ddf079455) Source usdjpy_fxcm_fx_daily: https://www.tushare.pro/document/2?doc_id=261（SHA-256 b0bcb568200f5134d3778b190b5529be20a522ba4838bb7107e3c4783ba46149) Source eurusd_fxcm_fx_daily: https://www.tushare.pro/document/2?doc_id=261（SHA-256 d46af73dc4b91cc1310fb18207f4690e50c5cee9ae86641c81829f1aabfa77a8) Source 510300_sh_fund_daily: https://tushare.pro/document/2（SHA-256 fc178cd7fbe3114dca16314786c892cb8b9b7fd753827a2c88ca5f94fada540f) Source 510300_sh_fund_adj: https://tushare.pro/document/2（SHA-256 3211a444a8de8369654c4810fa207a0ada5289cfb0ea2f41bc9c8b4ce6ae705a) Source 512480_sh_fund_daily: https://tushare.pro/document/2（SHA-256 bf12a8a7889e54b16dd2a34afc8a6ccc44e5ac086f9a39440fb737f361f46d22) Source 512480_sh_fund_adj: https://tushare.pro/document/2（SHA-256 c8b930ef45cfb6bde4351eab01768b9993448ac8cb01eade91416706fe36b80c) Source yahoo_sox: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/^SOX/history/（SHA-256 f14f226ff7403e3196e6b6d9c1acc91f4cb0170116de4d91423bdf739f7b70be) 局限: Assumed daily-close availability; no historical retrieval vintages. 局限: Previously inspected years; not an untouched holdout. 局限: Extant ETF selection and opening-price fill proxies; no capacity proof. 局限: Descriptive block-bootstrap intervals; no multiple-testing correction. 局限: One-session delay is sensitivity analysis, not verified provider latency.

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Data: Tushare / market-data-platform | Desk: Research editorial | Generated: 2026-10-30 11:27

Asian market overview

Market	Index	Data date	Close	Daily return	Status
Hong Kong	Hang Seng	2026-10-29	22958.65	-0.59%	Closed session
Japan	Nikkei 225	2026-10-29	64659.47	+1.10%	Closed session
Korea	KOSPI	2026-10-29	5937.66	-1.24%	Closed session

• Hong Kong close data; 2026-10-29T08:00:00+00:00; Evidence: asia.close.52577bcf9051cd858c5639e6c1dd846017d6721a5781111159bb8bedd8d1a0a7
• Japan close data; 2026-10-29T06:30:00+00:00; Evidence: asia.close.3b19ee2c7899fd32af07eb9e704b07f9043e8b62cc3f92369d85d0b7b66ba5ad
• Korea close data; 2026-10-29T06:30:00+00:00; Evidence: asia.close.629551d1d883f7326c335974436f66d72ec79e02c6de7d2cf96a8a97cdd9f2fc

Source times use exchange-calendar session closes. Daily bar timestamps identify local sessions.